447
FXUS61 KOKX 011117
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
717 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY, LOWERING TO A
LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY.
3) SUMMER HEAT BUILDS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A LONGWAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST, A FEW
ONGOING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING WILL BRING MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FROM THE NYC METRO AREA
NORTH/WEST. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE ONLY TO 65-70 ACROSS
S CT AND LONG ISLAND, AND 70-75 FROM NYC WEST, SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS SE CT TUE AFTERNOON
AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT INTERACTS WITH A SFC TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR CLIMO NORMS, IN THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY FOR ALL SOUTH
FACING ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH AN E-SE FLOW PICKING UP TO 10-15
KT COMBINED WITH A S SWELL. THE RISK THEN BECOMES LOW FOR
TUESDAY WITH A S WIND UNDER 10 KT AND 2-3 FT/7-9S SWELL OUT OF
THE E.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BY MIDWEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AS ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGING MERGES WITH ANOTHER
UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK, PROMOTING RISING TEMPERATURES.
AREAS FROM NYC WEST LOOK LOOK TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON
WED, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S ON THU. DAYTIME HIGHS FRI/SAT ARE
PROGGED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM MARITIME INFLUENCE,
COULD GET CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD HIGHS THU/FRI AT BRIDGEPORT,
WITH SOME RECORD HIGH MINS POSSIBLE ON SAT IN OUTLYING AREAS.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD KEEP MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 90.
THE STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER MAY OR MAY NOT BE AN EXTENDED ONE.
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SE STATES,
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING ATOP IT COULD BRING CHANCES FOR TSTMS
AND/OR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT THIS
COMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
VFR. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE NYC TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE TREATED WITH PROB30S IN THE TAFS.
LIGHT/VRB WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY, THEN EASTERLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS. GUSTS AT TIMES TO NEAR 20-25
KT CAN BE EXPECTED.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE 1-3 HOURS OFF FROM TAF THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TODAY MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL IN FREQUENCY. SHRA MAY BE
MORE ISO THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS FOR CT TERMINALS. EASTERLY GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH THEREAFTER.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. SOME S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SOME RESIDUAL 5-FT SEAS NEAR 44025 SHOULD SUBSIDE BEFORE
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER
THROUGH SAT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...GOODMAN
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