173
FXUS61 KOKX 011854
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
254 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THRU TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY. ONE MORE CHILLY
NIGHT ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT INTO TUE AM.
2) A MODERATE RIP/LONGSHORE CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO THIS
EVENING, THE LOWERING TO A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK.
3) SUMMER HEAT BUILDS THU THRU SAT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISO-SCT SHOWER
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE, PARTICULARLY N & W OF NYC/NJ
METRO IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL TAPER OF
THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO RADIATE INTO THE 40S, WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS OF LI.
ONE LAST SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH TUE AM INTO AFTERNOON BRINGING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY OR OFF INTERIOR HIGH
TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT NEAR CLIMO NORMS, IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MODERATE RIP/LONGSHORE CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING
FOR ALL SOUTH FACING ATLANTIC BEACHES WITH COMBINED 3-4 FT E WIND
WAVE AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL.
THE OVERALL RIP RISK THEN BECOMES LOW FOR TUESDAY WITH
PRIMARILY A 2-3 FT EASTERLY SWELL, AND 1 FT RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY
SWELL. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE A LONGSHORE CURRENT, WITH ENHANCED
RIP RISK ON EAST OF GROINS, JETTIES, OR OTHER N-S ORIENTED
FORMATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EAST COAST TROUGHING SLIDING WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AROUND NORTHERN PERIPHERY SOUTHERN RIDGING FOR THU
THRU SAT TIMEFRAME. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND ESTABLISHES OFF THE SE US COAST. THE RESULT WILL
BE A DEEP W/SW FLOW AND PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN.
AREAS FROM NYC WEST SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON WED, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S ON THU (AROUND 90 FOR NE NJ).
GOOD SIGNAL (NBM PROBS OF GREATER THAN 75% OF 90F) FOR TEMPS
REACHING THE LOWER 90S TO 95 ON FRI/SAT FOR NYC/NJ METRO, NEARBY
SUBURBS AND PORTIONS OF THE REGION AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COASTS.
TEMPS COULD GET CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD HIGHS THU/FRI AT
BRIDGEPORT, WITH SOME RECORD HIGH MINS POSSIBLE ON SAT IN
OUTLYING AREAS. NBM MEAN TDS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED IN THE 50S,
WHICH WOULD HAVE HEAT INDICES AT OR JUST BELOW TEMPS, BUT
POTENTIAL THIS COULD TREND HIGHER AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
(SIMILAR TO THE JUNE 19-20TH HEAT EVENT). WPC DAY 3-7 PROBS
(BASED ON GEFS, ECES, AND NAEFS) FOR 95+F HEAT INDICES ARE IN
THE 10-40% RANGE.
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SE CANADA SAT INTO SUN, WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING
AN END TO THE HEAT HEADING INTO SUNDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING THE
NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SAT AFT/EVE.
MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON
EVOLUTION OF SUBSEQUENT PAC SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE REGION, BUT
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
VFR. LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE NYC TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP PROB30S IN THE TAFS.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15KT. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME GUSTS TO
20-25 KT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SW ON TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE 1-3 HOURS OFF FROM TAF THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TODAY MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL IN FREQUENCY. SHRA MAY BE
MORE ISO THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: VFR. S-SW WINDS 10-14KT DURING THE DAYTIME.
SOME WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MARGINAL NEARSHORE EASTERLY SCA GUSTS ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. EASTERLY WIND WAVES BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN BY THIS EVENING, THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH
TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, SUB SCA COND EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND SOUTH OF THE
WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV
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