193
FXUS61 KOKX 021826
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
226 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR A SPOTTY
SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
2) SUMMER HEAT BUILDS (WITH LOW HUMIDITY) THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
3) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAINLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SEA BREEZES.
A SPOTTY, ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
INLAND OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG SEA BREEZE
FRONTS, INVOF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND ONE LAST WEAK SHORTWAVE
ALOFT PASSING THROUGH THE LONGER WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR CLIMO NORMS IN THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE EAST COAST TROUGHING SLIDING
AWAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE FOR THU
THRU SAT TIMEFRAME. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST TO START WILL SINK TO THE SOUTH AND SET UP OFF
THE SE US COAST BY FRI, WITH DEEP LAYER W-SW FLOW AND WAA.
TEMPS IN AREAS FROM NYC WEST SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S
ON WED, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S ON THU, AND
AROUND 90 FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF NE NJ.
TEMPS LIKELY REACH 90-95 ON FRI/SAT FOR NYC/NJ METRO, NEARBY
SUBURBS AND IN PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. TEMPS COULD
GET CLOSE TO DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON THU AT BRIDGEPORT AND AT MOST
CLIMATE SITES EXCEPT FOR CENTRAL PARK ON FRI, WITH RECORD HIGH
MINS POSSIBLE ON SAT. NBM DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED IN
THE 50S, WHICH WOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR JUST BELOW
TEMPS.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN FORECAST COULD
LEAD HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 95 BOTH FRI/SAT FOR THE URBAN
CORRIDOR OF NE NJ AND IN PARTS OF NYC WITH LESS AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE (MAINLY STATEN ISLAND/MANHATTAN). WPC DAY 3-7
PROBABILITIES (BASED ON GEFS, ECES, AND NAEFS) FOR >95F HEAT
INDEX VALUES REFLECT THIS, CONTINUING TO RUN IN THE 10-40%
RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES THROUGH SE CANADA SAT INTO SUN, WITH A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING AN END TO THE HEAT HEADING INTO
SUNDAY, AND ALONG WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WOULD BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS FROM LATE DAY SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTHERLY NEAR 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION IS CT TERMINALS,
WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW IS LESS AND MORE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
ARE DEVELOPING. KJFK IS FORECAST TO HAVE A SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WINDS GENERALLY
NORTHERLY NEAR 5-10 KTS. SEA BREEZES MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
KJFK SEA BREEZE UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM
TAF. COULD HAVE SOME 50-90 DEGREE VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN MORE WESTERLY VERSUS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LOW CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE AT KLGA AND KEWR.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE AT KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SEA BREEZES MORE LIKELY WITH FLOW CHANGING FROM
NORTHERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. S-SW WINDS 10-15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF AN LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SW
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS BECOMING SE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON
INTO NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SCA COND EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
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