543
FXUS61 KOKX 021953
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
353 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. CLIMATE SECTION
ADDED TO AFD FOR LATE WEEK RECORD POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMER HEAT (LOW HUMIDITY) BUILDS MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAINLY DRY AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW LOCALLY AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SEA BREEZES.
A WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY, MAINLY
INLAND OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG SEA BREEZE
FRONTS, BUT MOST REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WON'T BE QUITE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, BUT OUTLYING AREAS
COULD STILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
SUMMER HEAT THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH SATURDAY, PROMOTED BY
INCREASING HEIGHTS AS BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
US TRANSLATES EAST.
MUCH OF THE REGION APPROACHES OR CRACKS THE 80 DEGREE MARK
WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM THE EXITING TROUGH OFFSHORE AND
BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES NUDGE UPWARDS FURTHER
ON THURSDAY, WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC APPROACHING 90.
H850 TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO PEAK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, PROGGED
BETWEEN +15C AND +18C ON GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES TO ACHIEVE THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY
FROM DIRECT MARITIME INFLUENCE, AND LOW TO MID 90S FROM NYC ON
NORTH AND WEST. GIVEN THESE VALUES, ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO
FOR EARLY JUNE, SOME SITES COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED DAILY RECORDS.
SEE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN FOR DETAIL.
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE ON THE DRIER SIDE; DEW PTS PRIMARILY IN
THE 50S, WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE AN ADDITIONAL HUMIDITY COMPONENT
WITH FORECAST HEAT INDICES NEAR ACTUAL AIR TEMPS. IT'S NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THOUGH THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(>95F FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS) COULD BE ACHIEVED IN THE HOTTEST
LOCALES, ESPECIALLY IF THE FORECAST TRENDS SLIGHTLY WARMER,
MAINLY ACROSS URBAN NE NJ, AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NYC AWAY FROM
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. WPC DAY 3-7 PROBABILITIES (BASED ON GEFS,
EVES, AND NAEFS) FOR >95F HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE TO SIT IN
THE 10 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ELEVATED HEATRISK FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE THE
LIMITED RELIEF AT NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE URBAN CENTERS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST-
CENTRAL CANADA EAST THIS WEEK, GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH ITS INTERACTION WITH NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. THERE ARE SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 12Z GFS, TAKING THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, THEN CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, VERSUS MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS.
WHAT DOES SEEM MORE CERTAIN IS A BREAK IN THE HEAT AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON IF AND WHERE AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF.
NBM TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE BIT OF TEMPERATURE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FROM NEXT SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTHERLY NEAR 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
FOR MOST TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
EXCEPTION IS CT TERMINALS, WHERE MORE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
ARE ONGOING. KJFK IS FORECAST TO HAVE A SEA BREEZE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IS LOOKING LESS PROBABLE. TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, WINDS GENERALLY NORTHERLY NEAR 5-10 KTS. SEA BREEZES
MORE LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE AT KJFK.
KJFK SEA BREEZE UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM
TAF. COULD HAVE SOME WIDE VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTIONS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BETWEEN MORE NORTHERLY
VERSUS MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
LOW CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE AT KLGA AND KEWR.
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SEA BREEZE AT KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SEA BREEZES MORE LIKELY WITH FLOW CHANGING FROM
NORTHERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR. S-SW WINDS 10-15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF AN LATE DAY OR EVENING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. SW
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS BECOMING SE WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON
INTO NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD IN PLACE.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY, JUNE 5
KEWR: 95 (2021)
KBDR: 87 (2025)
KNYC: 99 (1925)
KLGA: 94 (2010)
KJFK: 90 (2010)
KISP: 88 (2010)
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DR
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