502
FXUS61 KOKX 031503
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1103 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM, WITH SUMMER LIKE HEAT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
2) NEXT RAINFALL WILL BE THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
3) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RESUMING
A WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH WAS IN PLACE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST
TODAY, AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES AT 5KFT WILL SLOWLY WARM FROM AROUND 10 C
LATER TODAY, TO 14 C BY LATE THURSDAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH 5KFT
TEMPERATURES GETTING TO AROUND 16 C BY LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 90S
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH NIGHT TIME MINIMUMS RISING THROUGH THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VERY TOLERABLE LEVELS
SO HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY PREVENT HEAT HEADLINES. IN ANY EVENT EXPECT
WARMER 80S BY THURSDAY, AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S FOR THE
METROPOLITAN AND INLAND LOCATIONS DURING BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 55 AND
60 ON SATURDAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONT DRAWING CLOSER AS A SW FLOW
PREVAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING EXACTLY HOW LONG THIS DRY STRETCH OF
WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME GLOBAL AND AI NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LEAD SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPSTREAM TROUGH
TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE SOME GUIDANCE DELAYS THE
ARRIVAL OF ANY SHORTWAVE FEATURE(S) UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING / NIGHT.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH POTENTIALLY PROVIDING A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE FOR ANY
CONVECTION WOULD BE FOR WESTERN MOST SECTIONS, WITH CHANCES
INCREASES FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY
SHOULD FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THEN SLOWS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AS SHOWER CHANCES POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SHOWER CHANCES POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY. NWP
CONSENSUS HAS RIDGING OFF TO THE WEST RETURNING FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND. OVERALL, MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W TODAY.
N-NNE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT TRANSITIONS TO SOUND BREEZES AT OR
JUST UNDER 10 KT AT KBDR/KGON AND HARBOR/OCEAN SE-S SEA BREEZES
THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST OTHER TERMINALS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT SW.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
EXACT TIMING OF SEA BREEZE ONSET UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE AN HR SOONER
THAN FCST. KLGA SHOULD LOCK ON TO AN ENE SOUND BREEZE 5-10 KT DURING
PART OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A S SEA BREEZE LATE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: VFR WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZES.
FRIDAY: VFR. COASTAL SEA BREEZES FOR KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. WSW FLOW
G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM AT KSWF. SW
WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM WITH MVFR OR
LOWER COND MAINLY AFTER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY: SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD FROPA WITH SW-S WINDS BECOMING NE-
E AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FOR A
PORTION OF THE WESTERN OCEAN OUT TO 20 NM WITH A POSSIBLE
AMBROSE JET LATE IN THE DAY FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
CHANCES INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE OCEAN OUT TO 20 NM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS MAINLY AT 4 TO 5
FT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS LATE SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE RIP
CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A MODERATE RISK BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY, JUNE 5
KEWR: 95 (2021)
KBDR: 87 (2025)
KNYC: 99 (1925)
KLGA: 94 (2010)
KJFK: 90 (2010)
KISP: 88 (2010)
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE/JM
AVIATION...JMC/GOODMAN
MARINE...JE/JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page