622
FXUS61 KOKX 040232
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1032 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THROUGH SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ON A WARMING TREND, GETTING MORE
TYPICAL OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER. NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
2) UNSETTLED SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
3) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TEMPERATURES WARM SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO THE
START OF THE WEEKEND, MAKING FOR A HOT AIRMASS. MORE AND MORE
LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 90 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOCATIONS WITHIN NE NJ AND NYC
GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S RANGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES. SOME TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD POTENTIALLY BE SET
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING
THE RECORDS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKES PLACE TONIGHT, WITH OVERALL RIDGE AXIS
STAYING WITHIN THE VICINITY THROUGH FRIDAY. RIDGING BECOMES LESS
PRONOUNCED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW SETTING
UP SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA THEN MOVES
MORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE THIS TIME PERIOD, HELPING PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME.
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AND
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ALSO. THE TEMPERATURE WARMTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS CAN BE CORRELATED TO BUILDING WARMTH AT 850MB
THAT LOCATIONS WILL ADIABATICALLY MIX TO ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
NIGHTTIME INTO EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ALSO EXHIBIT A
WARMING TREND OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE MAINLY FROM 85 TO 90
DEGREES THURSDAY, UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FRIDAY, AND LOW TO MID
90S ON SATURDAY. THE ONE FACTOR THAT WILL LIMIT THE HEAT INDEX
WILL BE THE DEWPOINTS. THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THIS PARAMETER
ALSO INCREASE, 40S TO LOW 50S THURSDAY, MORE IN THE 50S FRIDAY
AND MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES SATURDAY. THEREFORE, THE MAX
HEAT INDICES ARE ACTUALLY A FEW DEGREES LESS THAN THE ACTUAL
FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURE. PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE IN THE
LOWER 90S FOR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON
SATURDAY, SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS REACH NEAR 95 DEGREES MAX HEAT
INDEX.
AT THIS TIME, MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST VALUES ARE LESS THAN HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA STARTS WITH 2 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS OF 95+ DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES OR 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES
FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SORT OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT SETS UP
SATURDAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT. WITH PEAK HEATING BUT LIMITED BY THE LOWER DEWPOINTS, THERE
WILL BE LATE DAY INSTABILITY THAT MAKE THE AIR MORE BUOYANT AND WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THIS IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE SATURDAY NIGHT.
HEIGHTS LOWER MORE IN THE MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST APPROACHES THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT STARTS
TO ENTER THE REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE
HEIGHT FALLS AS SURFACE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
REGION. THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WHILE THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, RAIN IS
LOOKING TO BE MORE POST-FRONTAL IN NATURE. STILL CARRYING
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, BUT INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IS WEAK FOLLOWING A SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TEMPS BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES, INDICATING INCREASED SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO
CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND FRONTAL TIMING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
TREND IN GUIDANCE IS TOWARD DRIER WEATHER THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEAK
AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FEATURES AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD AND/OR
OVER THE TOP THE OFFSHORE LOW. OVERALL, THE TEMPERATURES REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, GO FROM BELOW NORMAL TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE. TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN THE NBM IS SUBSTANTIAL MID
TO LATE WEEK DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
S WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT W-NW FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH A QUICK SOUND BREEZE DEVELOPING
FOR BDR AND GON AFTER 14Z. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BECOME SW-S IN
THE AFTERNOON 10-13 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
EXACT TIMING OF SEA BREEZE AT JFK/LGA ON THURSDAY MAY BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS. WINDS AT EWR AND TEB COULD BECOME MORE SE THEN
INDICATED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS AT JFK MAY BE 15-20 KT AFTER 20Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT INTO SAT NGT. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
EXPECT THE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THIS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING IN PLACE. WINDS AND
SEAS PICK UP ON SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS FORECAST EARLY SATURDAY TRANSITION TO POTENTIALLY
MORE SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS ON MOST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENTIALLY SCA LEVEL SEAS BUILD
ON THE OCEAN LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA FOR THE OCEAN ON SUNDAY
BEFORE A STRENGTHENING E/NE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGS IN
THE POTENTIAL AGAIN.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE RIP CURRENT RISK COULD INCREASE TO A MODERATE
RISK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ON THURSDAY IN A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A MODERATE RISK IS MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH A
BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 2 FT 8S.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY, JUNE 5
KEWR: 95 (2021)
KBDR: 87 (2025)
KNYC: 99 (1925)
KLGA: 94 (2010)
KJFK: 90 (2010)
KISP: 88 (2010)
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/DW
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