098
FXUS61 KOKX 041144
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM, WITH SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN TOLERABLE.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY.
3) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY SOME BY
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE OVER TIME AND WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. OVERALL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES AT 5KFT WILL SLOWLY WARM
FROM AROUND 14 C BY LATE TODAY. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST
TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WITH 5KFT
TEMPERATURES GETTING TO AROUND 16 C BY LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90, OR INTO THE LOWER
90S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH NIGHT TIME MINIMUMS RISING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VERY TOLERABLE
LEVELS SO HEAT INDICES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD PREVENT HEAT HEADLINE ISSUANCE. IN ANY
EVENT EXPECT WARMER 80S, TO AROUND 90 FOR METRO NJ TODAY. THEN LOWER
TO A FEW MIDDLE 90S FOR THE METROPOLITAN AND INLAND LOCATIONS DURING
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST DEW POINT READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 55 AND 60, WITH A FEW LOWER 60S DEW
POINTS OUT ON LONG ISLAND ON SATURDAY DESPITE THE COLD FRONT DRAWING
CLOSER AS A SYNOPTIC SW FLOW PREVAILS. IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS
WILL EXPERIENCE A HYBRID SEA BREEZE WITH MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS, THUS KEEPING THESE LOCATIONS COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND AI NWP GUIDANCE HOLD BACK ANY LEAD SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPSTREAM TROUGH TOWARDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DELAYS THE ARRIVAL OF ANY SHORTWAVE
FEATURE(S) UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING / NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY AND EVENING WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE FOR WESTERN MOST SECTIONS, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY MOVES
THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND IS NOW PROGGED TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, NWP
CONSENSUS NOW POINTS TO RIDGING TO THE WEST RETURNING MORE QUICKLY,
WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND TAKING SHAPE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER INTO THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW IN CONTROL.
A LIGHT NW-W FLOW EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM KLGA NORTH/WEST,
WITH KJFK AND THE LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS REMAINING SW.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME SW-S AT OR JUST OVER 10 KT, BUT
STRONGER AT KJFK/KISP WHERE 10-15G20KT LIKELY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS 25-30 KT LIKELY JUST S OF KJFK AS WELL.
A SE-S HARBOR BREEZE SHOULD ALSO ARRIVE AT KEWR/KTEB FROM
19Z-20Z AND LAST UNTIL 01Z-02Z. WINDS DIMINISH THEREAFTER.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE AN HOUR LATER THAN FCST AT KEWR/KTEB.
GUSTS OVER 25 KT EXPECTED JUST S OF THE KJFK TERMINAL OVER
JAMAICA BAY AND THE NEARBY OCEAN FROM ABOUT 19Z UNTIL 01Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM AT KSWF.
SW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE WITH
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK, WITH
BASICALLY THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS BEING FOR A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN OCEAN OUT TO 20 NM WITH AN AMBROSE JET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25 KT. DURING SATURDAY THE
CHANCES INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE OCEAN OUT TO 20 NM WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT
AND OCEAN SEAS AROUND 5 FT. OTHER THAN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS
FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN DURING SUNDAY, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. THE WINDS THEN BECOME NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
EAST ON MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SOME. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS,
MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE RIP CURRENT RISK COULD INCREASE
TO A MODERATE RISK LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ON THURSDAY
IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. A MODERATE RISK IS MORE
LIKELY ON FRIDAY WITH A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 2 FT 8S.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY, JUNE 5
KEWR: 95 (2021)
KBDR: 87 (2025)
KNYC: 99 (1925)
KLGA: 94 (2010)
KJFK: 90 (2010)
KISP: 88 (2010)
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE
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