301
FXUS61 KOKX 191359
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
959 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
2) A MAINLY DRY, BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED.
3) LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION NEXT MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS
EVENING SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY, BUT LINGERING 4-5 FT/8SEC S
SWELLS WILL BRING 3 TO 6 FT BREAKING SURF, HIGHEST FOR EASTERN
LI BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK BECOMES MODERATE ON SATURDAY AS THE S SWELL
SUBSIDES TO 3-4 FT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UPPER LOW SLOWLY PULLS AWAY OVER EASTERN CANADA TODAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING LOCALLY
UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD BY LATER SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TODAY INTO SATURDAY IS THE RESULT, WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH LIKELY BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AS THE PBL BECOMES WELL-MIXED. THERE IS ALSO A LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER EACH AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND COLD POOL
ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GLOBAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS EVENING
ON A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ORIGINATING FROM THE PAC NW HEADING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND HEADS EAST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA, SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. DEWPOINTS AND
PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE STARTING LATE ON SATURDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST (PROGGED PWAT VALUES
ARE NEAR 1" BY MONDAY AM).
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY ON MONDAY, AND BECOME
MODERATE AT TIMES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES
OVER THE AREA. THE LOW HEADS EAST BY LATER MONDAY AND COMPLETELY
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY WITH PERCEPTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.
NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1" IN 24 HOURS ARE UP TO ABOUT 70%
AND GREATER THAN 2" IN 24 HOURS ARE UP TO ABOUT 35%. WPC MAINTAINS
A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD RISK FOR OUR AREA.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WNW-NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS WILL BECOME OCCASIONAL OR
BRIEFLY END TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUTLYING TERMINALS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
WIND DIRECTION COULD VARY AROUND 20 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT EWR AND JFK.
GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL OR BRIEFLY END TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR. WNW-NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: VFR. WNW-NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
S-SE GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MARGINAL W/SW SCA GUSTS ON NEARSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE RESIDUAL
WAVES 4-5 S SWELLS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE OCEAN SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, AND LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH SATURDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR SCA GUSTS ON ALL WATER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
THRU THE WATERS.
A PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DBR/NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DBR/NV
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