423
FXUS61 KOKX 200149
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
949 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY FOR SUNDAY AS WELL.
2) A MAINLY DRY, BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED.
3) ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD FOR SE CT ON SATURDAY.
4) LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY AS THE S SWELL SUBSIDES TO 2-3FT@8SEC, AND POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR SWELL CONDITIONS (HIGHEST
THREAT ACROSS EASTERN LI BEACHES)
KEY MESSAGE 2
CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY, AND SLOW TO RELENT THRU THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT TONIGHT, BRINGING GUSTY W/NW WINDS (25-
35MPH)LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, SCT TO BKN
AFT/EVE INSTABILITY CU ON SAT AND SUN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISO
TO SCT AFT/EVE SHOWERS (HIGHEST THREAT ACROSS INTERIOR). CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TSTM ACROSS INTERIOR, PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY AFT WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE UNDER A MODERATING CANADIAN
AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
COMBINATION OF PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 15-25G30MPH
AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGE ON SATURDAY WILL POSE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CT FIRE WX PARTNERS, AN SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NEW LONDON FOR THE CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND FUEL
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 4
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW DRIFTING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN
QUEBEC MON INTO TUE. MEANWHILE A PAC SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER THE
WEST COAST THIS MORNING, WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND WORKS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. GENERAL AGREEMENT ON RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND TRACKING
EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY
AND CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT.
STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF INHERENT TIMING/LOCATION SPREAD WITH
NORTHERN STREAM LOW AND PAC SHORTWAVE/VORTS, LIKELY AMPLIFIED BY
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ERROR IN THE LATTER FEATURES. THESE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE STRENGTH, TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW
PRESSURE. THIS COULD BE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A (SOUTHERN TRACK)
LONGER DURATION (8-12 HR) SOAKING STRATIFORM RAINFALL WITH
PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION OR A (NORTHERN TRACK)
SHORTER DURATION FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ISO-SCT
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT (HIGH SHEAR/WEAK
CAPE/STRONG FRONTAL FORCING), OR SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. THESE
DETAILS WILL LIKELY BE RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.
WITH THAT SAID, SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
FROM A (+3-4 STD) LLJ LIFTING A NEARLY (+1.5-2 STD) 2" PWAT
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND WARM CLOUD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION PRESENTS
THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
IS IN LINE WITH THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.
NWS NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE
SIGNALING (60-80%) PROBABILITIES OF >1" OF RAIN IN 24/HR, (25-50%)
PROBABILITIES OF >2" OF RAIN IN 24 HRS, AND 5-10% PROBABILITIES OF
>2" OF RAIN IN 24 HRS. THIS IS AN UPWARD TREND FROM 24 HRS AGO.
AT THIS POINT A GENERAL 1-2" OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL LOOKS
REASONABLE, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF 3"+. MUCH OF THIS
COULD FALL IN ONLY A 6HR PERIOD, WHICH PRESENTS POTENTIAL FOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, AND DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS
EVEN SOME MINOR FLOOD IMPACTS ALONG FLASHY SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAM (PER LATEST HEADWATER GUIDANCE).
AS WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENT, THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYNOPTIC DETAILS
AND THEN THE MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED (SAT
NIGHT/SUN MODEL RUNS) FOR MORE SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL RATES AND
RAINFALL MAXIMA LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH MORE SPECIFICITY AND IMPACTS DETAILS AS WE GET
INTO THE HIGH-RES CAM WINDOW THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WNW-NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 22-28 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS WILL BECOME OCCASIONAL OR
BRIEFLY END TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUTLYING TERMINALS. IF GUSTS
BECOME OCCASIONAL OVERNIGHT, THEY RETURN 11-13Z SATURDAY. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
GUSTS COULD BECOME OCCASIONAL OR BRIEFLY END TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
S-SE GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
EARLY, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR INTO TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
RESIDUAL WAVES 4-5 S SWELLS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL HAVE OCEAN
SEAS CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT THIS EVENING, AND LIKELY LINGER
ACROSS WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH SATURDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR SCA GUSTS ON ALL WATER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS
THRU THE WATERS.
A PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL WATERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV
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