229
FXUS61 KOKX 201734
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
134 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAINLY DRY, BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED.
2) ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD FOR SE CT TODAY.
3) LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
4) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGHS
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AWAY FROM NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL LIE
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST,
SETTING UP A GUSTY W-NW FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTS 25-35
MPH ARE EXPECTED, LIKELY PEAKING THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, WHICH WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO SUBSIDE INTO TONIGHT. WHILE
IT MAY REMAIN BREEZY ON SUNDAY, GUSTS (15-20 MPH) WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE OCCASIONAL.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO BROKEN AFT/EVE INSTABILITY CU BOTH DAYS
WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER, MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. POPS REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS UNDER A MODERATING CANADIAN AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COMBINATION OF PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS, WINDS OF 15-25G30MPH
AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35% RANGE TODAY WILL POSE AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH CT FIRE WX PARTNERS, AN SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NEW LONDON FOR THE CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND FUEL
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL ALSO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH
FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT THE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN.
ONE QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM REVOLVES AROUND THE LOCATION OF
THE WARM FRONT AND WHETHER IT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND, LIFT OVER THE AREA, OR LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THERE IS ALSO CONCERN THE MODELS COULD HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE
ERRORS WITH TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM. THESE ERRORS
COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A LONGER DURATION (SOUTHERN
TRACK) SOAKING STRATIFORM RAINFALL (8-12 HR) WITH PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION OR A NORTHERN TRACK, SHORTER
DURATION FRONTAL BAND OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ISO-SCT STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT (HIGH SHEAR/WEAK CAPE/STRONG FRONTAL
FORCING), OR SOMETHING IN BETWEEN. THESE DETAILS SHOULD BEGIN TO
BE RESOLVED IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS START COMING INTO RANGE.
DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES, THE SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WARM FRONT/LOW PRESSURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING FROM 1.75-2",
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF
THE HIGHEST PWATS MAY BE SOMEWHAT TIED TO HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM FRONT ULTIMATELY REACHES BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER WITH FREEZING LEVELS PROGGED AROUND
12-14KFT.
WPC HAS CONTINUED TO PLACE THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MONDAY.
NBM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >1" IN 24 HOURS HAVE INCREASED TO
75-90%. NBM ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >2" IN 24 HOURS HAS
REMAINED STEADY AROUND 25-50%, HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. NBM
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF >1" IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT ARE GENERALLY 10-20 PERCENT. A GENERAL 1-2" OF BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3". MOST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS TO FALL IN
ABOUT AN 8-12 HOUR PERIOD.
THE MAIN HYDROLOGIC CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FROM URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, AND DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS A LOW
RISK FOR MINOR FLOOD IMPACTS ALONG FLASHY SMALL RIVERS AND
STREAM.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK, BUT COULD BE INCREASED DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY
THE GUIDANCE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ULTIMATE LOCATION OF THE WARM AS WELL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SPECIFIC
DETAILS ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS COMING CLEARER AS WE GET INTO THE
HIGH-RES CAM WINDOW, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 4
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE STARTING TO SIGNAL THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING LATE IN THE WEEK, INTRODUCING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANY IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
CHANCES BEING ALMOST A WEEK OUT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR. BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDER CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. HAVE ADDED PROB30 WITH MVFR
-SHRA.
WNW-NW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED GUST A FEW KT HIGHER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE W/WNW
ON SUNDAY, BUT A BIT WEAKER. ISOLATED 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY AT KJFK, KISP, KBDR AND KGON, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH FARTHER INLAND IT GETS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE
LIKELY SAW THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF THE DAY EARLIER THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH/LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. POTENTIAL MVFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. S-SE GUSTS 20-30 KT DURING THE DAYTIME, STRONGEST
NEAR THE COAST.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA GUSTS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS NEAR 5 FT ON THE OCEAN DUE TO LINGERING S
SWELLS. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 25 KT THIS EVENING WITH
OCEAN SEAS BELOW 5 FT. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS OCCURS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACT THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT OCEAN BEACHES
WITH S SWELLS 2-3 FT AT 8 SECONDS.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON SUNDAY WITH
SUBSIDING S SWELLS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DS
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