637
FXUS61 KOKX 210120
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
920 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
3) THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY. SOME COULD BE SEVERE
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
4) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SHOULD SPARK A FEW
AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. INSTABILITY
IS RELATIVELY LOW (BELOW 1000 J/KG), AND STORM MOTION IS MODELED
TO BE AROUND 10 KT. AS A RESULT, THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN HIGH-
BASED STORMS. MAIN THREAT AREA IS CT INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SUPPORT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MODELING REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE AREA ON MON AND PRODUCE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MON NIGHT. TIMING PLACES
THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATE AFTN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SWATH OF PW IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL
SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS ZONE
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THESE AREAS
USUALLY PREFER TO SET UP FROM CT INTO NJ, WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE
NAM. THE NAM INDICATES MAX PW AROUND 2.5 INCHES. AS A RESULT,
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO THE
REGION FOR THE FLOOD THREAT. THIS IS REASONABLE NOW THAT THE
FLASH FLOOD RISK HAS INCREASED.
THE OVERALL RAINFALL FORECAST REMAINS 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA MON AFTERNOON AS
INITIAL CONVECTION STARTS DEVELOPING. IT IS ALONG AND NEAR
THIS CAPE GRADIENT THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE.
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AS THIS AREA MAY ONLY GET UP TO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ. THE 18Z NAM HAS THIS AREA ONE ROW OF
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE OKX CWA. WHERE STORMS DO SET UP, THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE WIND AND ISOLD TORS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
SPC HAS NONETHELESS TRENDED THE AREA UP WITH THE SWRN THIRD NOW
IN A MARGINAL RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 4
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS
WOULD HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FAVORED. LONG ISLAND INTO
COASTAL CT COULD REMAIN DRY THRU THE PERIOD, WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE 12Z RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE PATTERN IS INCREASING. IN THIS
SETUP HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD END UP WEST OF THE CWA
BUT THAT IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DETAIL THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE REGION WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO.
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
WINDS INITIALLY NW NEAR 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING TO NEAR 10 KT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING. WINDS BECOME
MORE W-SW SUNDAY AND THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN WIND SPEED. A FEW GUSTS TO
15-20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY EARLY WITH SHOWERS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS TAPER OFF AT NIGHT.
VFR EVENTUALLY RETURNS AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUN, THEN RAMP UP
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN LATE DAY MON AND MON NIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDE ON TUE, WITH HIGH PRES LIKELY KEEPING THINGS BLW
SCA LEVELS FROM TUE NIGHT-THU.
RIP CURRENTS:
FOR SUNDAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD BE MODERATE AT THE SE
SUFFOLK BEACHES, WHERE A 3-FT S SWELL @ 8 SECONDS SHOULD
PERSIST. FCST SWELL FARTHER WEST IS ONLY 2 FT, SO THE OVERALL
RISK THERE SHOULD BE LOW.
ON MONDAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD START OFF MAINLY LOW,
THEN INCREASE TO HIGH DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT THE
NYC/NASSAU BEACHES AND MODERATE AT THE SUFFOLK BEACHES, AS SE-S
FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT AND WIND WAVES TO 3-4 FT, HIGHEST
WEST.
OUTLOOK...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FURTHER MON NIGHT, SO A HIGH
RISK MAY BE PRESENT AT ALL THE OCEAN BEACHES ON TUE ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING, UNTIL WINDS TURN OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JMC/BG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/BG
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