497
FXUS61 KOKX 211919
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
319 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY, HIGH
HOURLY RATES ARE STILL POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC ARE NOW IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, THE
NY HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
2) HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOOD
IMPACTS, AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES AND A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. INSTABILITY IS VERY SHALLOW, BUT THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT IN A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BETWEEN -10 AND -20 C
TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HRRR
WHICH APPEARS TO BE OVER MIXING). DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER ALSO SUPPORTS
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN ANY OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANY SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES TO THE EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME, AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA
BEFORE THE LOW PULLS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL UP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WITH
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS
COMBINATION BRINGS THE THREAT FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT
AS WELL AS HEAVIEST AXIS OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, CAMS HAVE
STARTED HINTING AT MORE WIDESPREAD HIGHER TOTALS BEING FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. THIS CAN
BE SEEN IN THE 12Z HREF LPMM WITH A FEW STRIPES OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT, ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PUT DOWN HIGH HOURLY RATES. MAINLY UP TO 1-1.5 INCH/HR, BUT
UPWARDS TO 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THIS CAN
BE SEEN IN THE 12Z HI RES GUIDANCE ON THE WPC URRD WITH A FEW
MEMBERS SHOWING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH.
WHILE THESE HIGHER RATES DO CAUSE CONCERN FOR URBAN AREAS, IF
THEY OCCUR ELSEWHERE THEY WILL LIKELY NOT CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
DUE TO HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN
COVERAGE AND LOCATION. ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL AREA RIVER AND
STREAMS ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL, TOWARDS THEIR 10TH
PERCENTILE. THIS HELPS LOWER THE RISK FOR RIVER AND STREAM
FLOODING. GUIDANCE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A FLOOD WATCH CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THIS
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND
DECENT LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN MODEL HODOGRAPHS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
THE SPC HAS NUDGED THE SLIGHT RISK CLOSER TO OUR AREA AND NOW
COVERS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
UNDER A MARGINAL AREA, EXCEPT FOR EASTERN LI AND EASTERN CT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD HELP
TO TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
ENDS UP ON FRIDAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AXIS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SEVERE/HYDRO IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME SINCE THIS IS 5-6 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HI PRES BUILDS IN TNGT, FOLLOWED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYS
FOR MON.
MAINLY VFR THRU TNGT. SOME SHOWERS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE TIL ABOUT 00Z. CAN'T RULE OUT THUNDER AS WELL, BUT NOT
ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
A FEW SHWRS POSSIBLE AFT 14Z MON WITH A WARM FRONT, THEN IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE AFTN AFT 18Z. HEAVIER SHWRS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE, BUT MAINLY AFT 00Z TUES, SO HELD OFF
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR SWF WHERE PROBS ARE EARLIER.
NW/W WINDS THIS AFTN WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZE FLOW.
WINDS THEN BECOME LV AFT 00Z INTO MON MRNG. E/SE FLOW AROUND 10
KT DEVELOPS AFT 14Z.
SOME MRGNL LLWS MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO 00Z TUE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THIS
EVE.
ANY SHWRS OR TSTMS THIS AFTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS AOA 35KT. COVERAGE AND PROB TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS HOWEVER.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
REST OF MONDAY: BECOMING IFR WITH LOC HVY SHWRS AND TSTMS
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY AFT 00Z. E WINDS BECOMING S.
TUESDAY: IFR IN THE MRNG BECOMING VFR. N FLOW 10-20KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW.
THURSDAY: VFR WITH INCREASING S FLOW.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHWRS AND TSTMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE LI SOUND AND PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS ARE NOW UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO 25-30 KT GUSTS AND 5
FT SEAS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE OTHER
WATERS TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
THEREAFTER, WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE AT SE SUFFOLK BEACHES WHERE A
3FT S SWELL @ 8 SECONDS LIKELY PERSISTS. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LOW FOR THE REST OF THE OCEAN BEACHES WITH A 2FT S SWELL @ 8
SECONDS.
ON MONDAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING S FLOW AND WIND WAVES
3-4 FT. THE RISK COULD BECOME HIGH LATE IN THE DAY FOR WESTERN
BEACHES IF HIGHER WINDS AND WIND WAVES OCCUR EARLIER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ338-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ345-350-353.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JT
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