715
FXUS61 KOKX 221506
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1106 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NYC AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY FOR
MUCH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FLASH FLOODING TO PART OF THE AREA. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
3. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR LATE TODAY FOR THE OCEAN
BEACHES OF NYC, NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND MAY BE ONGOING AT
ALL THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. SEE MARINE
SECTION FOR DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WARM FRONT PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING TUESDAY. ANTICIPATING
DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. WHILE CAMS STILL DISAGREE REGARDING THE
TIMING OF STORM CELLS THAT MAY PRODUCE QUICK DOWNPOURS, THERE
ARE SIGNALS AMONGST THEM/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALONG WITH OTHER
MODELS THAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
PERIODS. LIFT GETS ENHANCED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVES AND AN
UPPER JET STREAK DURING THIS PERIOD. THINKING IS THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR PRIMARILY IN
URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO PHI,
HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE
AREAS TYPICALLY PRONE TO THIS MODE OF FLASH FLOODING - NYC AND
NE NJ. WHILE IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY DRY LEADING UP TO TODAY, CREEK
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVER NE
NJ. TIMING OF THE WATCH COVERS MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL
OF TONIGHT. RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE AS HIGH AS
AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NOT PASSING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY,
ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE DURING TUESDAY MAINLY
EAST OF NYC. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WOULD BE NEEDED TO PRODUCE
FLOODING FOR THESE SPOTS, SO NO WATCHES PLANNED FOR NOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TO BECOME SEVERE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL LOCATION OF
THE WARM FRONT AND DECENT LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN MODEL HODOGRAPHS
WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE AND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO DUE TO SHEAR PROFILES. THE SPC MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS INTO STATEN ISLAND AND UNION COUNTY IN
NE NJ, AND A 2% TORNADO RISK INTO ALL OF NE NJ AND NYC. EXCEPT FOR
FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT, THE REST OF THE AREA IS UNDER A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD HELP TO TRIGGER
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS
STARTING TO INCREASE THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ENDS UP ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AXIS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ANY SEVERE/HYDRO IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME SINCE THIS IS AROUND 5 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
VFR THRU THE MORNING, BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR OR LOWER LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUE AM AND LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A NEARBY WARM
FRONT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND
WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY, OPTED TO TEMPO
THE TSRA FOR MOST TERMINALS RATHER THAN PREVAIL. POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 00Z, AND MAY NEED
ADDITIONAL TEMPO IN FUTURE UPDATES. SHOWERS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT MAY FALL ONLY
INTERMITTENTLY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR TSRA LATE TUE AM
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND MAINTAINED PROB30S FOR NOW.
FLOW BACKS ESE THRU LATE MORNING, SPEEDS INCREASING TO 9-14 KT.
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS WE GET LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KT,
POSSIBLY GOING VARIABLE IN SPOTS. WINDS N/NNW 5-10 KT TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING OF
THESE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION AND SUBSEQUENT CATEGORY DECLINES
IS MORE UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
TIMING OF TSRA COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AFTER 00Z TUE, TEMPO MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT CITY TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT APPEARS TOO OCCASIONAL TO PREVAIL AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: IFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS, IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. VFR EVENTUALLY RETURNS. NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20
KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY FOR WESTERN
TERMINALS. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
S FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS REMAIN
UNDER AN SCA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, FOR GUSTS 25-30 KT AND
OCEAN SEAS UP TO 5 FT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE OTHER WATERS TO BE
ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THEREAFTER, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE FOR MUCH OF TODAY, THEN
INCREASES TO HIGH AFTER 5 PM AT THE OCEAN BEACHES OF NYC, NASSAU AND
WESTERN SUFFOLK AS S FLOW INCREASES TO 20 KT AND ASSOCIATED WIND
WAVES BUILD TO 4-5 FT, AT A TIME WHEN LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH PATROLS
WILL BE COMING OFF DUTY. RCMOS FORECAST FOLLOWED FOR THE MOST PART
AS IT IS WELL ALIGNED WITH THE TREND IN WINDS/SEAS.
A MOSTLY MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
RISK IS STILL HIGH EARLY ON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ338-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC
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