661
FXUS61 KOKX 222015
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
415 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS HAS BEEN EXPANDED TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NYC AND NE NJ THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL OF SOME FLASH FLOODING TO PART OF THE AREA.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
3. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES OF
NYC, NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND MAY BE ONGOING AT ALL THE
OCEAN BEACHES INTO PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. SEE MARINE SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NJ IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS REFLECT A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH TALL,
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
A MODERATE TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO BE CONCENTRATED FROM AROUND I-78 ON SOUTH, BUT
VEERING WINDS WITH STRONG SHEAR IS IN PLACE ON THE ORDER OF
40-55 KNOTS. SRH VALUES ARE HIGH NEAR THE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS
ALSO SHOWN WITH DECENT CURVED HODOGRAPHS, AND LCL HEIGHTS ARE
CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT UNDER 1000M. SO BESIDES FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A 2% TORNADO STILL
HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC FOR PARTS OF NE NJ AND NYC. RAINFALL RATES IN
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
WHICH CAN RESULT IN PONDING ON ROADS OR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OF URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON, ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS CAN
RISE AS WELL.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING
SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERING DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CITY, SO POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD HELP
TO TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
ENDS UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AXIS IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. IFR OR LOWER LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUE
AM AND LIFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A NEARBY WARM
FRONT. MAINTAINED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT MOST TERMINALS THRU EARLY
EVENING, BUT COULD PUSH LATER INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT
LIKELY FALL MORE INTERMITTENTLY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
TSRA LATE TUE AM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND MAINTAINED
PROB30S FOR NOW. THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING TUESDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
WIND DIRECTION A BIT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GENERAL ESE
OR SE FLOW, SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
BRIEF GUST TO 40 KT. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS WE GET LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 5 KT, POSSIBLY GOING VARIABLE IN SPOTS BEFORE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z TUE. WINDS N/NNW 5-10 KT
THEREAFTER.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF TSRA COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS. BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT CITY TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT APPEARS TOO OCCASIONAL TO PREVAIL AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. LIGHT NW FLOW.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
S FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS REMAIN
UNDER A SCA FROM THROUGH TONIGHT, FOR GUSTS 25-30 KT AND OCEAN
SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE TO HIGH AFTER 5 PM AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES OF NYC, NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK AS S FLOW
INCREASES TO 20 KT AND ASSOCIATED WIND WAVES BUILD TO 4-5 FT, AT
A TIME WHEN LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH PATROLS WILL BE COMING OFF
DUTY. RCMOS FORECAST FOLLOWED FOR THE MOST PART AS IT IS WELL
ALIGNED WITH THE TREND IN WINDS/SEAS.
A MOSTLY MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
RISK IS STILL HIGH EARLY ON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ338-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DK
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