942
FXUS61 KOKX 230132
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND THEN
ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WX THREAT IS LIKELY OVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AFTER 9-10PM AND THEN CONTINUING
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THIS
EVENING, MAINLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW HEAVIER RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. DIMINISHING FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WX
THREAT IS LIKELY OVER.
2. AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS LIKELY TUESDAY ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
3. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES OF
NYC, NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND MAY BE ONGOING AT ALL THE
OCEAN BEACHES INTO PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. SEE MARINE SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS THE REGION
FORM THE MID-ALTNATIC WILL HAVE WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT
LIFTING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CAMS AND WOFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY
FOR HEAVY SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTMS BY AROUND 10PM FOR NYC/NJ
AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE, (ALREADY SEEN WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NJ). THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WORK NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION,
MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NYC THAT SAW AROUND 1-2" OF
RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WX NOT EXPECTED.
PERHAPS A BREAK IN CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AM AS
COLD FRONT SAGS AND VORT TRAIN MOVES NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN TOMORROW MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS, RRQ OF ULJ AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING NE ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THREAT FOR AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP LIFT, PWATS STILL AROUND 2", WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER.
SPC HREF INDICATING 10% PROB OF 3"/3HR NEARBY, WITH WPC URRD
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR 2" IN 3/HR, AND PEAK RAINFALL RATES OF
1 TO 1 1/2"/HR, PARTICULARLY EAST OF NYC/NJ METRO.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD HELP
TO TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
ENDS UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AXIS IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH ISOLATED
VFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A RESPITE IN THE RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THOUGH WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA, SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO START UP AGAIN AROUND 03Z OR
THEREAFTER, WITH THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
THROUGH ABOUT 08Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
FROM 08Z THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY, THOUGH CHANCE WERE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AFTER 08Z TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
TAPERS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND REMAIN
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME TERMINALS,
EVEN INTO THE METRO AREA, MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 KT, BUT HIGHER IF THE STORMS BECOME STRONG.
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND DIRECTION, ESPECIALLY
BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA,
BUT A GENERAL ESE TO S FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE N/NNW AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
BUT AGAIN, WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT,
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF TSRA COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS.
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT CITY TERMINALS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT APPEARS TO BE OCCASIONAL.
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION, BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LIGHT NW FLOW.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
S FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS REMAIN
UNDER A SCA FROM THROUGH TONIGHT, FOR GUSTS 25-30 KT AND OCEAN
SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
RIP CURRENTS:
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THIS EVENING WITH 4 TO 5 FT BREAKING SURF
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
TURN OFFSHORE, BUT LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ338-345-350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...DK/NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DK/NV
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