404
FXUS61 KOKX 230558
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NYC/NJ METRO THROUGH AROUND 2AM AND THEN CONTINUING
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT. ISO TO SCT FLASH FLOOD THREAT
THROUGH AROUND 2AM FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND SURROUNDINGS,
PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS THAT SAW HEAVIER RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
DIMINISHING FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE WX THREAT
IS LIKELY OVER.
2. AREAS OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS LIKELY TUESDAY ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
3. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES OF
NYC, NASSAU AND WESTERN SUFFOLK, AND MAY BE ONGOING AT ALL THE
OCEAN BEACHES INTO PART OF TUESDAY MORNING. SEE MARINE SECTION
FOR DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT ENERGY LIFTING TOWARDS THE REGION
FORM THE MID-ALTNATIC WILL HAVE WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND WARM FRONT
LIFTING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
CAMS AND WOFS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY
FOR HEAVY SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTMS BY AROUND 10PM FOR NYC/NJ
AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE, (ALREADY SEEN WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL NJ). THIS SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WORK NE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION,
MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NYC THAT SAW AROUND 1-2" OF
RAIN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WX NOT EXPECTED.
PERHAPS A BREAK IN CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AM AS
COLD FRONT SAGS AND VORT TRAIN MOVES NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION LIKELY FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN TOMORROW MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS, RRQ OF ULJ AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDING NE ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THREAT FOR AREAS OF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY
WITH DEEP LIFT, PWATS STILL AROUND 2", WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
AND DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER.
SPC HREF INDICATING 10% PROB OF 3"/3HR NEARBY, WITH WPC URRD
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR 2" IN 3/HR, AND PEAK RAINFALL RATES OF
1 TO 1 1/2"/HR, PARTICULARLY EAST OF NYC/NJ METRO.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD HELP
TO TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS STARTING TO INCREASE THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
ENDS UP ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE SHORTWAVE AXIS IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY, THOUGH CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE TAFS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
TERMINALS, THOUGH AREAS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER THEY MOVE THROUGH. IN GENERAL HOWEVER, IFR TO LIFR IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VLIFR IS ALSO NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION, BUT MAINLY ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO
VFR FOR KSWF BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE QUICKER THAN CIGS AS WINDS
TURN MORE TOWARD THE NW, BRINGING IN DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND REMAIN
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME TERMINALS,
EVEN INTO THE METRO AREA, MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 KT, BUT HIGHER IF THE STORMS BECOME STRONG.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND DIRECTION CONDITIONS CONTINUES,
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA, BUT A GENERAL S TO SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS
SHIFT TO THE N TO NNW AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. BUT AGAIN, WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIGHT, AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY DUE TO TIMING OF TSRA AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION CONTINUES WITH PROXIMITY OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF A GENERAL S TO SSW
FLOW IS EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM NW TO SE LIGHT N
TO NW FLOW.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
S FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE SOUND AND PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS REMAIN
UNDER A SCA FROM THROUGH TONIGHT, FOR GUSTS 25-30 KT AND OCEAN
SEAS UP TO 5 FT.
RIP CURRENTS:
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THIS EVENING WITH 4 TO 5 FT BREAKING SURF
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
TURN OFFSHORE, BUT LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ072>075-
176-178.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ338-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DK/NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DK/NV
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