155
FXUS61 KOKX 230630
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FLASH FLOOD THREAT DIMINISHES INTO THIS MORNING. MINOR FLOODING
IMPACTS HOWEVER STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CONTINUE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF TODAY WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. LIFT WITH THESE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH PVA SHIFTING THROUGH ALOFT AND
UPPER JET DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND MODEST CAPE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE FOCUS
SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AND WITH LIMITED POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING EAST OF THE CURRENT
WATCH (LIKELY FALLING SHORT OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THRESHOLDS
WITH MAYBE ONLY ISOLATED INSTANCES OVER NEW LONDON COUNTY
DURING THE PRE-DAWN PERIOD), WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY EXTENSION OF
FLOOD WATCHES. STILL A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING THROUGH TODAY, BUT THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
EXTENT OF IMPACTS. ADDITIONALLY, NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THIS POINT ON AS CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD HELP
TO TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND
AS WELL.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER, RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY, THOUGH CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER IN
THE TAFS. PRECIPITATION TAPERS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
TERMINALS, THOUGH AREAS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR AN HOUR OR SO
AFTER THEY MOVE THROUGH. IN GENERAL HOWEVER, IFR TO LIFR IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VLIFR IS ALSO NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION, BUT MAINLY ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING, WITH A RETURN TO
VFR FOR KSWF BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE QUICKER THAN CIGS AS WINDS
TURN MORE TOWARD THE NW, BRINGING IN DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND REMAIN
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME TERMINALS,
EVEN INTO THE METRO AREA, MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 KT, BUT HIGHER IF THE STORMS BECOME STRONG.
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WIND DIRECTION CONDITIONS CONTINUES,
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE AREA, BUT A GENERAL S TO SSW FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL WINDS
SHIFT TO THE N TO NNW AFTER 12Z TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT. BUT AGAIN, WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIGHT, AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY DUE TO TIMING OF TSRA AND THEIR IMPACTS ON
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION CONTINUES WITH PROXIMITY OF
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF A GENERAL S TO SSW
FLOW IS EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FROM NW TO SE LIGHT N
TO NW FLOW.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN CANCELED WITH WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS
BELOW THRESHOLDS AND LIKELY REMAINING THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY. SUB-ADVISORY CONDS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE, BUT LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE.
CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ072>075-
176-178.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC
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