232
FXUS61 KOKX 231458
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1058 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES AT THIS TIME AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
CAN LEAD TO SOME PONDING ON ROADS OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. LIFT WITH THESE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH PVA SHIFTING THROUGH ALOFT AND
UPPER JET DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND MODEST CAPE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS SHOWERS BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS POINT ON
AS CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD HELP
TO TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND
AS WELL.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR EASTERN TERMINALS,
WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE CITY
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR ALL BUT KMGJ.
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE TAFS.
NNW WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 10-15 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT EASTERN
TERMINALS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING FOR IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE, BUT LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE.
CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...FEB/JC/JP/BR
MARINE...JC
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