604
FXUS61 KOKX 231759
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES AT THIS TIME AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS
CAN LEAD TO SOME PONDING ON ROADS OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS, BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED NORTH OF MOST OF THE AREA AND A COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. LIFT WITH THESE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH PVA SHIFTING THROUGH ALOFT AND
UPPER JET DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH MOISTURE AND MODEST CAPE TO
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AS SHOWERS BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL, MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS POINT ON
AS CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT. THIS WOULD HELP
TO TRIGGER THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND
AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 19Z. CAN'T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES AT KGON BETWEEN 02-06Z. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLYING TERMINALS WILL SEE WINDS DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN
OFFSHORE, BUT LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE.
CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JC
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