718
FXUS61 KOKX 232202
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
602 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS TAPER THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
MOVES IN.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HEAT BUILDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
PRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, AND EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. THE RISK FOR ANY LIGHTNING IS VERY
LOW AS WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS IS MOSTLY OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD COASTAL DELMARVA AND OFF THE JERSEY SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT SETTING UP A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW QUICKLY
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY. OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE OR HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVING PROGRESSED
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THEREAFTER, MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS LOWER
90S FOR PARTS OF THE URBAN NYC METRO, LOOK LIKELY INTO MID NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KGON, WHERE IFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER LONGER THAN FORECAST AND A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02-06Z.
NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT AT
OUTLYING TERMINALS. WINDS THEN BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NW AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/DR
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...DK/DR
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