003
FXUS61 KOKX 232316
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
716 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS TAPER THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE HEAT BUILDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
PRESS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. SHOWERS ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, AND EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. THE RISK FOR ANY LIGHTNING IS VERY
LOW AS WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS IS MOSTLY OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD COASTAL DELMARVA AND OFF THE JERSEY SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT SETTING UP A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW QUICKLY
CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY. OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE OR HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVING PROGRESSED
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THEREAFTER, MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS LOWER
90S FOR PARTS OF THE URBAN NYC METRO, LOOK LIKELY INTO MID NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH, THEN WELL EAST OF THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
ANY LINGERING SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT KGON EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TOWARDS
09-10Z. AT KGON, IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS
AND AFTER 02Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY SKC
ON WEDNESDAY.
NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT AT
OUTLYING TERMINALS. WINDS THEN BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NW AND INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS NOT EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON
INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK/DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DK/DR
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