152
FXUS61 KOKX 241809
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
209 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE
AND FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
2. HOTTER TEMPERATURES PROBABLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TOO EARLY FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE REGARDING POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY TRACKS EAST AND
PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOST LIKELY DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT THEN
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY, BUT
MOST LIKELY DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN DURING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD, BUT PERHAPS THERE'S SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL IN ANYTHING THE MANAGES TO PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST BY SUNSET THURSDAY. STRONG GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
NO STRONG SIGNALS YET FOR FLASH FLOODING DURING THE PERIOD. PWATS
FORECAST TO INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS GENERALLY
KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOT TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTH, SO TRENDS
REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT SAGS DURING THIS PERIOD NEED
TO BE MONITORED. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT COULD END UP FARTHER NORTH AND INCREASE THE FLOODING
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST
DURING TUESDAY. JUST HOW CLOSE THE RIDGE AXIS GETS TO US BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN IS IN QUESTION. GIVEN PROGGED GLOBAL MODEL AND LREF
850MB TEMPS, ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY POTENTIAL
CONVECTION SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO OUR AREA, AGREE WITH WPCS
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM NBM FOR TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS WOULD LIKELY FALL SHORT OF ANY
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF AN EVENT 7 DAYS
AWAY, TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, ESPECIALLY FOR LATER ON IN THE
WEEK WHEN THE HEAT MAY BUILD FURTHER.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL TERMINALS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH BROKEN CEILINGS EXPECTED AT SWF LATE
THURSDAY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 00Z FRIDAY,
BUT CHANCES LOOK HIGHER AFTER 02-03Z.
GENERALLY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH ABOUT 22Z, MAINLY AT
EWR, TEB, SWF AND JFK. TONIGHT, WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS,
BECOMING NORTHERLY AGAIN. TOMORROW, WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KT FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z THURSDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY
BROKEN CEILINGS PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY, THUNDER CHANCES LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. S WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND THURSDAY
AS LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DK
MARINE...JC
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