450
FXUS61 KOKX 242330
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
730 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
2. SUMMER HEAT LIKELY RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND UP INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND CAMS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. WHILE THERE IS MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THERE IS
LITTLE INSTABILITY TO DRIVE STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION.
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS FOLLOWS WITH A DEEP-
LAYERED W/SW FLOW. THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM MOVING IN FROM THE SW FOR THE NYC/NJ METRO TOWARD
EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PRETTY
MUCH UNEVENTFUL, HOWEVER, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY STATES. NBM HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT UPWARD TICK IN
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS LI, NYC, AND NE NJ, DUE
TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL WAVE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECTING LESS COVERAGE WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THERE LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH DIGGING OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THE
AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE SLOW AND THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE FLOW
FLATTER WITH THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOW IN THE 50S AND 60S.
IT DOES BECOME NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID BEHIND THE WARM FRONT LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND LOOKS
TO WORK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY SUNDAY TO ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DROP DOWN FROM CANADA AND CAUSE CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT. MEANWHILE,
MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH THE LOCAL
AREA STRADDLING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EAST. DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF AS THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC DEPICT,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. CONVERSELY,
THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS BOTH OFFER SHALLOWER, MORE TRANSIENT TROUGHING
THAT FAVORS WARMER WEATHER WITH A QUICKER EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
RIDGE. ADDING TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY RIDGE
ROLLERS COMING DOWN INTO THE AREA, PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION AND MUTED TEMPERATURES.
NBM SPREAD CAPTURES THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL, WITH 15+ DEGREE
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
MID NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEASONABLE SUMMER
HEAT RETURNING EARLY WEEK, WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HOTTER
WEATHER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MANY SOLUTIONS STILL ON THE
TABLE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MORNING.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN TERMINALS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY TO THE
NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
MOST TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING FOR KSWF IN THE 24-30 HR
PORTION (00-06Z FRI) OF THE TAF.
TONIGHT WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS, AND BECOMING MAINLY
NORTHERLY AGAIN. ON THURSDAY THE WINDS START OFF MAINLY OUT OF THE
SE AT 5 TO 10 KT, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10 KT AND
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARDS OR JUST AFTER 18Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE NE NJ TERMINALS TOWARDS 18-20Z
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE TIMING OF A WIND DIRECTION
SHIFT FROM THE SE TO S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING GUSTS, THUS THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO
PREVAILING WIND GUST GROUP IN TAFS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY
TEMPO GROUP AT KEWR AND KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR EARLY, THEN INCREASING CHANCE OF SUB VFR WITH
MVFR BECOMING LIKELY LATE IN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LATE
MAINLY FOR CITY AND WESTERN TERMINALS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS AT 5-7 SEC PERIODS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR/DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR/DW
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