780
FXUS61 KOKX 251135
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
735 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT US TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH IT MAY COME A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMER HEAT. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINING
IN THE CARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT US TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE AND
FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL TRAVERSE NEAR THE REGION. THIS JET STREAK ALOFT WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL HELP GUIDE A WEAK A SURFACE LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
BRING BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY WHICH WILL
BRING UP PWATS TO MODEST LEVELS TONIGHT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75". THIS
FRONT WILL THEN STALL NEAR THE AREA, AIDING IN LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TONIGHT, AIDED
BY SYNOPTIC LEVEL LIFT AS WE SIT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET
STREAK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END IN THE MORNING AS THE
WEAKENING LOW WASHES OUT OVER NEW ENGLAND. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SHOTS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR N&W OF
NYC. THEN AS THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT, THEY WILL
MOVE INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PASS ALONG AN ALREADY EXISTING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE REGION. THIS ONE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE LATER SIDE OF THINGS,
WITH MOST SHOWER CHANCES OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO ALIGNS WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC LEVEL LIFT
AS THE REGION SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, AS THE WEAKENING
LOW SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE AREA. HOWEVER, RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT LATER
ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOST OF
WHAT OCCURS WILL BE PLAIN SHOWERS. THE ONE SHOT WE HAVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
INTERIOR. THERE WON'T BE MUCH LIFT AVAILABLE WITH THE LOW STILL FAR
AWAY. IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR, THEY MAY REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AS WE WILL BE WARM-SECORTED BY THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, HEAT
INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL NO LONGER BE
WARM-SECTORED, SO LESS HUMID AIR RETURNS WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY AND CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT. MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH THE LOCAL AREA STRADDLING THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO A COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE
OTHER MODELS THAT OFFER SHALLOWER, MORE TRANSIENT TROUGHING THAT
FAVORS WARMER WEATHER WITH A QUICKER EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
RIDGE. ADDING TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY RIDGE
ROLLERS COMING DOWN INTO THE AREA, PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION AND MUTED TEMPERATURES.
NBM SPREAD CAPTURES THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL, WITH 15+ DEGREE
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
MID NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEASONABLE SUMMER
HEAT RETURNING EARLY WEEK, WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HOTTER
WEATHER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MANY SOLUTIONS STILL ON THE
TABLE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE MORNING.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN TERMINALS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MVFR
OR LOWER IS KSWF AND FOR ANY TERMINAL THAT RECEIVES A
THUNDERSTORM.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE
WINDS START OFF MAINLY OUT OF THE SE AT 5 TO 10 KT, THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10 KT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
TOWARDS OR JUST AFTER 18Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE NE NJ TERMINALS TOWARDS 18-20Z THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE, MAINLY IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE
TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR OR MVFR QUICKLY BECOMING VFR. SW TO WSW
FLOW 10 KT OR LESS.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY WITH
2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS AT 5-7 SEC PERIODS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BR
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