310
FXUS61 KOKX 251309
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
909 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT US TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH IT MAY COME A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUMMER HEAT. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINING
IN THE CARDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT US TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
LATE THIS WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL TRAVERSE NEAR THE REGION. THIS JET STREAK ALOFT WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL HELP GUIDE A WEAK A SURFACE LOW FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
BRING BRING A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
UP PWATS TO MODEST LEVELS TONIGHT BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75". THIS
FRONT WILL AID IN LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIKELY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT, AIDED BY SYNOPTIC
LEVEL LIFT AS WE SIT UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET
STREAK. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END IN THE MORNING AS THE
WEAKENING LOW WASHES OUT OVER NEW ENGLAND. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOME SHOTS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY N&W OF NYC. THEN AS THUNDERSTORMS
PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO TONIGHT, THEY WILL MOVE INTO A MORE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE COAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PASS ALONG AN ALREADY EXISTING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE REGION. THIS ONE LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON THE LATER SIDE OF THINGS,
WITH MOST SHOWER CHANCES OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO ALIGNS WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC LEVEL LIFT
AS THE REGION SITS UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, WITH
SHOWERS DECREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
WEAKENING LOW SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE AREA. HOWEVER, RISING HEIGHTS
ALOFT LATER ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF WHAT OCCURS WILL BE PLAIN SHOWERS. THE ONE
SHOT WE HAVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE INTERIOR. THERE WON'T BE MUCH LIFT
AVAILABLE WITH THE LOW STILL FAR AWAY. IF THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
THEY MAY REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY MORE
HUMID AS WE WILL BE WARM-SECORTED BY THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER, HEAT
INDICES WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. BY SATURDAY, WE WILL NO LONGER BE
WARM-SECTORED, WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY AND CAUSE
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT. MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH THE LOCAL AREA STRADDLING THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE
AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A DIGGING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY TRY TO CLOSE OFF WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO A COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. CONVERSELY, THERE ARE
OTHER MODELS THAT OFFER SHALLOWER, MORE TRANSIENT TROUGHING THAT
FAVORS WARMER WEATHER WITH A QUICKER EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
RIDGE. ADDING TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY RIDGE
ROLLERS COMING DOWN INTO THE AREA, PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION AND MUTED TEMPERATURES.
NBM SPREAD CAPTURES THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL, WITH 15+ DEGREE
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
MID NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEASONABLE SUMMER
HEAT RETURNING EARLY WEEK, WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HOTTER
WEATHER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MANY SOLUTIONS STILL ON THE
TABLE.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FORM THE SW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, MOVING INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MVFR
OR LOWER IS KSWF AND FOR ANY TERMINAL THAT RECEIVES A
THUNDERSTORM.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY THE
WINDS START OFF MAINLY OUT OF THE SE AT 5 TO 10 KT, THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 10 KT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
TOWARDS OR JUST AFTER 18Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE NE NJ TERMINALS TOWARDS 18-20Z THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE, MAINLY IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE
TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN A SHOWER FRIDAY MORNING.
CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH 2 TO 3 FT
SOUTHERLY SWELLS AT 5-7 SEC PERIODS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BR/DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BR
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