199
FXUS61 KOKX 251925
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
325 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR SATURDAY, LIKELY LINGERING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT US TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE AND FLASH FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
2) HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINING
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS (LFQ) AND A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND WESTERN PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE COMPLEX WILL TRACK EAST ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WHILE THE PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT THAT WORKS INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT LOOKS RATHER DIFFUSE, UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD ALLOW THE
COMPLEX TO MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE.
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC WITH DECREASING
CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS UPPER SUPPORT.
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A QUARTER INCH WILL ALSO BE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY,
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME OF THIS TO AFFECT
CT AND LI IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY RAIN WOULD BE
BRIEF. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO
THE NORTH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND HOW QUICKLY IT SETTLES TO THE
SOUTH WILL BE KEY TO HOW MUCH RAIN THE AREA RECEIVES AND WHETHER
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A CONSENUS
FORECAST APPROACH SUPPORTS THE BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE ALONG IT TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR MAINLY RAIN.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED AND IT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR LI. THERE ARE
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM 12KM AND NAM 3KM THAT KEEP THE
FRONT CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
STRONGER CONVECTION AND A POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS SOLUTION THOUGH IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME, BUT
SUBTLE TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION CHANGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. RIGHT NOW, WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
DID DEVIATE SOME FROM THE NBM TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO A RECENT HIGH BIAS, CLOUD COVER, AND WIND DIRECTION
BEING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON
FRIDAY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, BUT LIKELY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE 70S ON SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER/RAIN. LOWS DURING
THIS TIME WILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. IT WILL ALSO BECOME NOTICEABLY
MORE HUMID ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY AND CAUSES
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT. MEANWHILE, MID LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST, WITH THE LOCAL AREA STRADDLING THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOW A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY TRY TO
CLOSE OFF WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
CONVERSELY, THERE ARE OTHER MODELS THAT OFFER SHALLOWER, MORE
TRANSIENT TROUGHING THAT FAVORS WARMER WEATHER WITH A QUICKER
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE. ADDING TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANY RIDGE RIDERS COMING DOWN INTO THE AREA, PRODUCING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION AND MUTED TEMPERATURES.
NBM SPREAD CAPTURES THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL, WITH 15+ DEGREE
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE HIGH TEMPERATURES
MID NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SEASONABLE SUMMER
HEAT RETURNING EARLY WEEK, WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR HOTTER
WEATHER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MANY SOLUTIONS STILL ON THE
TABLE.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING FRI MORNING.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SE-S FLOW 10-15 KT ALONG THE COAST. A FEW
GUSTS 15-20 KT LIKELY AT KLGA/KEWR/KHPN, AND MAY BE OCCASIONAL AT
KJFK/KTEB. WINDS BECOME S 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND AND POSSIBLY A TSTM LATE TONIGHT,
WITH TIMING 07Z-11Z AT THE NYC METROS AND KHPN, 04Z-10Z AT KSWF, 08Z-
12Z KISP/KBDR, AND 09Z-13Z AT KGON.
AFTER WARM FROPA, WINDS BECOME SW JUST UNDER 10 KT FRI MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE WITH MVFR COND POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: MVFR COND LIKELY, IFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. A LATE DAY TSTM POSSIBLE AT THE NYC
METROS AND KSWF.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KJFK.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS AT 5-7 SEC PERIODS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DW/MW
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