715
FXUS61 KOKX 260810
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
410 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
2) BUILDING HEAT LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
BUT A FEW DISTURBANCES MAY BRING ABOUT SOME PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AREA IN WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING GUSTY ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST.
THE RAIN SHOWERS WITH LEFT FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS WILL BE LESS
EXPANSIVE AND DECREASE IN PROBABILITY LATER THIS MORNING WHEN
THE DYNAMICS ARE LESS FAVORABLE. SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THERE WILL BE BUILDING INSTABILITY BUT DRIER AIR AND A LACK OF
VERTICAL MOISTURE. SO, THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM BUT PROBABILITIES FOR THESE ARE SLIGHT CHANCE.
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND MORE IN
THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SATURDAY WITH THAT GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BUILDING HEAT POTENTIAL LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
BUT A FEW DISTURBANCES MAY BRING ABOUT SOME PERIODIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE AREA SETTLES SOUTH OF THE REGION AND BECOMES BASED IN
WESTERN ATLANTIC THEREAFTER.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TIED MORE TO ANY OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES, WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE OR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY ONWARD NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS THERE WILL
BE MORE DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO HELP MAKE THE AIR MORE BUOYANT.
THE FORECAST USED A BLEND OF FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR LATE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK FOR TEMPERATURES. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MONDAY WILL GET MORE INTO THE 90S AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES WITH MORE OF THE REGION GETTING INTO THE 90S
RANGE. WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, AIRMASS WILL BECOME HUMID AS
WELL, WITH POTENTIAL MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100
RANGE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR INTO JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING.
DAYTIME, MORE OF A SW TO WSW FLOW NEAR 10 KT, SOME TERMINALS
HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER WINDS, MORE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THE GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER BOTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH EARLY SHOWERS, POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR OCEAN SCA CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. MARGINAL SCA POTENTIAL FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR OCEAN BEACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL TO DEVELOP SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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