147
FXUS61 KOKX 110605
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER THREAT DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY FOR NE NJ/NYC METRO
AND SURROUNDINGS.
2) SEASONABLY WARM AND COMFORTABLY DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
3) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD FOR TUE/WED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SW CT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND WAKE OF PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE.
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND RRQ OF ULJ PIVOTS TOWARDS THE
AREA SATURDAY, ALONG WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT TRAIN
STREAMING TOWARDS THE MID-ATLATIC FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN AS
THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING APPEARS TO STALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN SLOWER DRYING OF THE
ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY, WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS (LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS) AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A FEW
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NE NJ/NYC METRO IN THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND RESIDUALLY MOIST
AIRMASS (1 1/2-2" PWATS).
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THIS IS ONLY A SMALL PERCENTAGE
OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT WOULD INTRODUCE A LOW AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MEAN UPPER TROUGHING SLIDING ACROSS THE NE US
THIS WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THRU THE
WEEKEND AND OVERHEAD BY MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH COMFORTABLY LOWER TDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HEART OF CANADIAN HIGH AND AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN CENTRAL US HEAT RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION TUE AND WED, ALLOWING FOR BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
LOCALLY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
TO BE HIT BY WEDNESDAY FOR NE NJ/NYC METRO.
THEREAFTER INHERENT UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH A
STRENGTHENING HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC UPPER LOW DETERIORATES THE
RIDGE, AND SUPPRESS THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL REGION FOR LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY VFR FORECAST OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NYC
AND LI TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z AS SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A PROB30 IS BEING USED TO MENTION SHOWERS
FOR ALL BUT KGON AND KSWF. KSWF MIGHT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES SOME.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT N/NE EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 5-10KT
AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING
E/ESE, THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TOWARDS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MARGINAL SCA SEAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM IN RESPONSE TO
15G20KT EASTERLY FLOW SAT AFT/SAT NIGHT BETWEEN DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE LOW AND BUILDING HIGH.
OTHERWISE SUB-SCA EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RIP RISK (E TO W LONGSHORE CURRENT
DOMINANT) FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 1-2 FT S/SE SWELLS, AND 3
FT E WIND WAVES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS/NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...NV/MW
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