978
FXUS61 KOKX 110818
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
418 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF NASSAU AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM,
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY FOR NE NJ/NYC METRO AND SURROUNDINGS.
2) SEASONABLY WARM AND COMFORTABLY DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
3) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUILD FOR TUE/WED.
4) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND RRQ OF ULJ PIVOTS TOWARDS THE
AREA TODAY, ALONG WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT TRAIN
STREAMING TOWARDS THE MID-ATLATIC FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTH AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH APPEARS TO
STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC.
TREND OVER THE LAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN SLOWER DRYING OF THE
ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY, WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS (LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS) AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A FEW
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NE NJ/NYC METRO IN THE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND RESIDUALLY MOIST
AIRMASS (1 1/2-2" PWATS). NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR
STORMS BUT ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MEAN UPPER TROUGHING SLIDING ACROSS THE NE US
THIS WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, WHILE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THRU THE
WEEKEND AND OVERHEAD BY MONDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH COMFORTABLY LOWER TDS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
HEART OF CANADIAN HIGH AND AIRMASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN CENTRAL US HEAT RIDGE EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION TUE AND WED, ALLOWING FOR BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
LOCALLY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
TO BE HIT BY WEDNESDAY FOR NE NJ/NYC METRO.
THEREAFTER INHERENT UNCERTAINTY ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH A
STRENGTHENING HUDSON BAY/QUEBEC UPPER LOW DETERIORATES THE
RIDGE, AND SUPPRESS THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL REGION FOR LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON ON JULY 14 AND A MINOR OF PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE
COASTLINE IN AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING
WATER LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THE LOCATIONS THAT LOOK MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AT THIS TIME ARE THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE THREAT MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH THE
NEW MOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS JUST
BELOW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
THOUGH AS WE COULD STILL SKIRT NEAR MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. ANY
FLOODING AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND MINOR.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY VFR FORECAST OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NYC
AND LI TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z-18Z AS SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS
PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL BE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES HEADING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. A PROB30 IS BEING USED TO MENTION SHOWERS
FOR ALL BUT KGON AND KSWF. KSWF MIGHT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES SOME.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT N/NE EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 5-10KT
AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER THROUGH THE DAY BECOMING
E/ESE, THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARDS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA
SEAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM IN RESPONSE TO 15G20KT EASTERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH.
OTHERWISE SUB-SCA EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RIP RISK (E TO W LONGSHORE CURRENT
DOMINANT) FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH 1-2 FT S/SE SWELLS, AND 3
FT E WIND WAVES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NV/DW/MW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...NV/MW
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