452
FXUS61 KOKX 111554
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NJ/NYC/WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN NORTHERN NJ/NYC/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE.
2) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTHERN NJ/NYC/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL CHANCES DIMINISHING BY
NO LATER MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FROM THERE, ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE BETTER INSTABILITY
IS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE AREA.
DESPITE THE FRONT BEING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, THERE IS STILL A
MOISTURE AXIS WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SO POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE. STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST, HOWEVER MEAN FLOW MAY BE JUST PARALLEL ENOUGH TO THE
MOISTURE AXIS/FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT TRAINING AND POSSIBLY
SOME NUISANCE FLOODING/PONDING IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
FORTUNATELY, IT APPEARS THAT STORM MOTION IS SOUTHERLY ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE THE TRAINING/FLOOD RISK. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO LIMIT RAINFALL RATES AND THUNDER POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S BOTH DAYS
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DEW POINTS/MIXING
DEPTH (LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE MIXING COULD HELP LIMIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES). THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO DECREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON ON JULY 14 AND A MINOR OF PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE
COASTLINE IN AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING
WATER LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THE LOCATIONS THAT LOOK MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AT THIS TIME ARE THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE THREAT MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH THE
NEW MOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS JUST
BELOW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
THOUGH AS WE COULD STILL SKIRT NEAR MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. ANY
FLOODING AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND MINOR.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD PUSH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE A MAINLY VFR FORECAST OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP, AND
THESE STORMS ARE MAINLY IMPACTING THE NYC/NJ AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS. THE BEST TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE THROUGH
ABOUT 18-20Z. AS SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TODAY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
N/NE WINDS 5-10KT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/ESE BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BACK AROUND
TO THE NE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED. TUE AND WED SW-WSW WIND
G15-20KT
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARDS THE WATERS. POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL SCA
SEAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM IN RESPONSE TO 15G20KT EASTERLY
FLOW THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BETWEEN DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH.
OTHERWISE SUB-SCA EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL.
RIP CURRENTS:
LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RIP RISK (E TO W LONGSHORE CURRENT
DOMINANT) FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH 1-2 FT S/SE SWELLS, AND 3
FT E WIND WAVES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AM/DW/MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...NV/MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page