337
FXUS61 KOKX 111811
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HAVE DECREASED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN NJ THIS AFTERNOON.
2) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LATE MORNING SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY EXITED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA AND ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE
MUCH LOWER TO THE NORTH SO GENERALLY EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. POPS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ARE
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A LOW-END CHANCE
OVER NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NJ
MAY BE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. RAINFALL RATES MAY BE BRIEFLY
MODERATE, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S BOTH DAYS
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DEW POINTS/MIXING
DEPTH (LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE MIXING COULD HELP LIMIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES). THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO DECREASE LATE IN THE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON ON JULY 14 AND A MINOR OF PUSH OF WATER TOWARDS THE
COASTLINE IN AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING
WATER LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THE LOCATIONS THAT LOOK MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE AT THIS TIME ARE THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF
COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTIES. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE THREAT MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH THE
NEW MOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS JUST
BELOW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
THOUGH AS WE COULD STILL SKIRT NEAR MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. ANY
FLOODING AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AND MINOR.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY OR
AROUND 20Z. THE AIRMASS WILL BE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TODAY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES INTO LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
N/NE WINDS 5-10KT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/ESE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING NE, TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR EXPECTED. TUE AND WED SW-WSW WIND
G15-20KT
MARINE
WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15G20KT
AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH
COULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD TO AROUND 4FT FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE
OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND OCEAN WAVES BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET
(HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE IN EASTERN OCEAN ZONES). GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 30 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONES DURING THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RIP RISK (E TO W
LONGSHORE CURRENT DOMINANT) FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH 1-2 FT
S/SE SWELLS, AND 3 FT E WIND WAVES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AM/DW/MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...AM/MW
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