641
FXUS61 KOKX 112228
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
628 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCALING BACK POP LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE ONLY OCCURRED WELL INLAND.
ADDED TIDAL AREAS OF NE NJ, STATEN ISLAND, AND S QUEENS TO THE
ONGOING COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT, WHICH NOW ALSO COVERS THE LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR SW
CT AND ORANGE/PUTNAM.
2) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF LATE
DAY/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWERS HAVE ONLY OCCURRED OVER INTERIOR SW
CT AND ORANGE/PUTNAM, SO WILL ADJUST POP ACCORDINGLY. RAINFALL
RATES MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FLOODING ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES. HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S BOTH DAYS
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95+ DEGREES POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND
MOST LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DEW
POINTS/MIXING DEPTH (LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE MIXING COULD HELP
LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES). HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DUE TO 2 DAYS OF APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 95+ DEGREES. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO DECREASE LATE IN
THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON ON JULY 14 AND A MINOR OF PUSH OF WATER TOWARD THE
COASTLINE IN AN E FLOW TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS. THE LOCATIONS THAT LOOK MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AT THIS
TIME ARE THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF COASTAL FAIRFIELD,
SOUTHERN NASSAU/QUEENS, AND TIDAL AREAS OF NE NJ AND STATEN
ISLAND. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS COVERING THE LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
TODAY AND SUNDAY.
THE THREAT MAY LINGER LONGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH
THE NEW MOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS
JUST BELOW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED THOUGH AS WE COULD STILL SKIRT NEAR MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS. ANY FLOODING AT THAT TIME WOULD BE BRIEF/MINOR.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXPECT A MAINLY VFR FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BY OR
AROUND 20-22Z. THE AIRMASS WILL BE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY WHICH WILL LESSEN THE CHANCES INTO LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
N/NE WINDS 5-10KT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E/ESE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING NE, TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR EXPECTED. TUE AND WED SW-WSW WIND
G15-20KT
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15G20KT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
TO 3-4 FT FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
OCEAN SEAS BUILDS TO 4-6 FT, HIGHEST EAST. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30
KT OUT EAST DURING THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH AN
CONTINUED E-W LONGSHORE CURRENT DOMINANT ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF TODAY, WHEN MANY BEACH REPORTS CAME
IN MODERATE WITH 2-3 FT WIND WAVES, 1-2-FT S-SE SWELL, AND
GREATER THAN USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW
MOON ON THE 14TH. THE RISK COULD BECOME LOW MON MORNING, BUT
SHOULD REBOUND TO MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT S FLOW
INCREASES TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUILDING WIND WAVES TO 3
FT.
RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HIGH RISK
SPANNING LATE DAY TUE INTO PART OF WED MORNING AS SEAS BUILD
TO 4-6 FT ON A SW FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT, AND GREATER
THAN USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING NEW
MOON CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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