676
FXUS61 KOKX 120556
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
156 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 90S BOTH DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95+ DEGREES
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND MOST LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DEW POINTS/MIXING DEPTH (LOWER DEW
POINTS AND MORE MIXING COULD HELP LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES).
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DUE TO 2 DAYS OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 95+
DEGREES. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON ON JULY 14 AND A MINOR OF PUSH OF WATER TOWARD THE
COASTLINE IN AN E/SE FLOW TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ARE
THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF COASTAL FAIRFIELD, SOUTHERN
NASSAU/QUEENS, AND TIDAL AREAS OF NE NJ AND STATEN ISLAND. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
COVERING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE THREAT MAY LINGER LONGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH
THE NEW MOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS
JUST BELOW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED THOUGH AS WE COULD STILL SKIRT NEAR MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS. ANY FLOODING AT THAT TIME WOULD BE BRIEF/MINOR.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY.
VFR.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND THEN VEER TO
THE S/SE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AT OR
UNDER 10 KT THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIGHT S WIND.
MONDAY: VFR. S-SW FLOW.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR. W-SW GUSTS 15-20 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR. W FLOW.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15G20KT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD ALLOW WAVES TO BUILD
TO 3-4 FT FOR A FEW HOURS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
OCEAN SEAS BUILDS TO 4-6 FT, HIGHEST EAST. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30
KT OUT EAST DURING THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH AN
CONTINUED E-W LONGSHORE CURRENT DOMINANT ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF TODAY, WHEN MANY BEACH REPORTS CAME
IN MODERATE WITH 2-3 FT WIND WAVES, 1-2-FT S-SE SWELL, AND
GREATER THAN USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW
MOON ON THE 14TH. THE RISK COULD BECOME LOW MON MORNING, BUT
SHOULD REBOUND TO MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT S FLOW
INCREASES TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUILDING WIND WAVES TO 3
FT.
RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HIGH RISK
SPANNING LATE DAY TUE INTO PART OF WED MORNING AS SEAS BUILD
TO 4-6 FT ON A SW FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT, AND GREATER
THAN USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING NEW
MOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...GOODMAN
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