682
FXUS61 KOKX 121824
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
224 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM & DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
2) HOT & HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY.
3) SEASONABLE WARMTH RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
OCCASIONAL SHOT OR TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
4) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE REGION INTO
TONIGHT, GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE, THE RETURN S/SW FLOW WILL ADVECT
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO
INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE LOW 70S. 500MB HEIGHTS
RISE ALOFT BY TUESDAY TO AROUND 590 DAM WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINING TO OUR WEST OVER THE CENTRAL US INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THESE TWO FACTORS WILL SUPPORT WARMER, MORE HUMID AREA SETTLING INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
ON WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH IN CANADA SAGS SOUTHWARD, SUPPRESSING SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT, AIDING IN THE ADVECTION OF WARM
AIR INTO THE AREA. HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
AS A RESULT, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 95 TO 102.
SHOULD THIS FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK, HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE
HOISTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE CRITERIA OF REACH 95+
HEAT INDEX FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN WITH DEWPOINTS, MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE AREAL EXTENT OF 95+
HEAT INDICES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY, FOR THE MOMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS
OVERALL WILL BE LOWER WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING TO OUR
NORTH THROUGH THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND MORE PASSING CLOUD COVER. THE QUESTION AROUND UNSETTLED
WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LONG TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK IN THE WEEKEND BROUGHT ON BY
SEVERAL PASSING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER, TIMING AND MAGNITUDE WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES REMAINS TOO VARIABLE TO GET A HANDLE ON A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE PERIOD FOR THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS TO OCCUR. FOR NOW,
HAVE GONE WITH 30-50% POPS ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW
MOON ON JULY 14 AND A MINOR OF PUSH OF WATER TOWARD THE COASTLINE IN
AN E/SE FLOW TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING WATER LEVELS IN SOME
LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS.
THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ARE THE MORE VULNERABLE
LOCALES OF COASTAL FAIRFIELD, SOUTHERN NASSAU/QUEENS, AND TIDAL
AREAS OF NE NJ AND STATEN ISLAND. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS COVERING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE THREAT MAY LINGER LONGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH THE
NEW MOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS JUST
BELOW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THOUGH
AS WE COULD STILL SKIRT NEAR MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. ANY FLOODING AT
THAT TIME WOULD BE BRIEF/MINOR.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY.
VFR.
WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING 10KT OR LESS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO UNDER 5
KT. SPEEDS INCREASE BACK TO 5-10KT MID TO LATE MORNING ON
MONDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR. W-SW GUSTS 15-20 KT.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND
OCEAN SEAS BUILDS TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST EAST. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT
OUT EAST DURING THIS TIME. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH A CONTINUED E-
W LONGSHORE CURRENT DOMINANT ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM
THAT OF YESTERDAY, WHEN MANY BEACH REPORTS CAME IN MODERATE WITH 2-3
FT WIND WAVES, 1-2-FT S-SE SWELL, AND GREATER THAN USUAL TIDAL
FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON THE 14TH. THE RISK
COULD BECOME LOW MON MORNING, BUT SHOULD REBOUND TO MODERATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LIGHT S FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUILDING WIND WAVES TO 3 FT.
RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HIGH RISK SPANNING
LATE DAY TUE INTO PART OF WED MORNING AS SEAS BUILD TO 4-6 FT ON A
SW FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT, AND GREATER THAN USUAL TIDAL
FLUCTUATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING NEW MOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR
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