630
FXUS61 KOKX 130545
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
145 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3) SEASONABLE WARMTH RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. AN
OCCASIONAL SHOT OR TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
4) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE, RETURN S-SW FLOW WILL ADVECT
MORE WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO THE LOWER 70S. H5
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT BY TUESDAY TO AROUND 590 DM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING TO OUR WEST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
MID ATLANTIC. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE LOWER/MID
90S ON TUE, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S.
ON WEDNESDAY, A TROUGH IN CANADA SAGS SOUTHWARD, SUPPRESSING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS TAKING ON A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT, AIDING IN WAA.
HIGHS ON WED MAY REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
RANGING FROM 95-102.
SHOULD THIS FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK, HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE
HOISTED FOR TUE/WED GIVEN THE CRITERIA OF REACHING 95+ HEAT
INDEX VALUES FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS. HOWEVER, SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH DEWPOINTS, MIXING HEIGHTS AND THE
AREAL EXTENT OF 95+ HEAT INDICES, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY FOR
THE MOMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
CANADIAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS
ALOFT OVERALL WILL BE LOWER, WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
PASSING TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND MORE PASSING CLOUD COVER. THE QUESTION AROUND
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LONG TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT
A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK IN THE
WEEKEND BROUGHT ON BY THE PASSING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER, TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE WITH THESE SHORTWAVES REMAIN TOO VARIABLE TO GET A
HANDLE ON A HIGHER CONFIDENCE TIME PERIOD FOR THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO OCCUR. FOR NOW, HAVE GONE WITH 30-50% POP ON THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON ON JULY 14 AND A MINOR OF PUSH OF WATER TOWARD THE
COASTLINE ON AN E-SE FLOW TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ARE
THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF COASTAL FAIRFIELD, SOUTHERN
NASSAU/QUEENS, AND TIDAL AREAS OF NE NJ AND STATEN ISLAND. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
COVERING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE THREAT MAY LINGER LONGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH
THE NEW MOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS
JUST BELOW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED THOUGH AS WE COULD STILL SKIRT NEAR MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS. ANY FLOODING AT THAT TIME WOULD BE BRIEF/MINOR.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.
VFR.
LIGHT S/SW WINDS FOR MORNING PUSH, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
S SUSTAINED WINDS 16-20KT LIKELY FOR JFK BTWN 20 AND 24Z, WITH
LATE DAY GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FOR LGA.
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN FREQUENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW-W WINDS 15-20G25-30KT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA LATE WED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE MORNING. LIGHT S FLOW
TO START ON MON SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE MON NIGHT.
THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THE OCEAN AND ERN SOUND, AS SW WINDS
INCREASE WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT,
HIGHEST EAST. SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ON THE OCEAN E OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET INTO LATE TUE NIGHT/WED.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI.
RIP CURRENTS: ON MON THE RISK COULD START OFF AS LOW IN THE
MORNING WITH LIGHT S FLOW. THE COMBO OF ONSHORE S FLOW
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON BUILDING WIND WAVES TO 3
FT, PLUS GREATER THAN USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE
UPCOMING NEW MOON ON TUE, SHOULD INCREASE THE RISK TO MODERATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD BE MOSTLY MODERATE ON TUE, AS WINDS
BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT, BUILDING SEAS TO 3-5 FT BY
LATE DAY, AND COULD INCREASE TO HIGH BY LATE DAY JUST AS MOST
LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH PATROLS FINISH ROUTINE DAILY OPERATIONS.
THAT HIGH RISK (IF IT DEVELOPS) COULD LAST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/BR
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/BR
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