996
FXUS61 KOKX 130755 AAA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
355 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF EASTERN LI AND
COASTAL SE CT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) SEASONABLE WARMTH RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN OCCASIONAL SHOT OR TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
3) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FOLLOWING AN UNEVENTFUL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TODAY, HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
600 DM HIGH (+3SD) AT 500 MB EXPANDS EAST. THIS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED BUT NOT BEFORE PLUS 20C AIR AT 85H OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND AND UPPER MIDWEST SPILLS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL
RESULT IN A CAPPED AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AS THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACHIEVED ON WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 90S, POSSIBLY A 100 IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 ACROSS ALL BUT EASTERN LI AND COASTAL
SE CT FOR TUESDAY AND CLOSER TO AROUND 100 FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LI AND
COASTAL MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES IN CT. HOWEVER, THERE
IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THOSE AREAS WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY LOWER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY SW FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, HIGHEST AT THE COAST. WINDS DO WEAKEN
SOME TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THE
WEST FLOW WILL ALLOW THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ALL
THE WAY TO EASTERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE
MARINE INFLUENCE IS HELD IN CHECK. A FEW LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
DURING THIS TIME, THE AIRMASS WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED AND DRY.
THIS WILL HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO BREAK THE CAP WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE NBM
WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD, MAINLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BASED ON ITS
WARM SEASON BIAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL
CANADIAN TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS
ALOFT OVERALL WILL BE LOWER, WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
PASSING TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS TIME.
THIS WILL PRIMARILY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND MORE PASSING CLOUD COVER. THE QUESTION AROUND
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS UNCERTAIN. LONG TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT
A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK IN THE
WEEKEND BROUGHT ON BY THE PASSING SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER, TIMING
AND MAGNITUDE WITH THESE SHORTWAVES REMAIN TOO VARIABLE TO GET A
HANDLE ON A HIGHER CONFIDENCE TIME PERIOD FOR THESE SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO OCCUR. FOR NOW, STILL HAVE A 30-50% POP SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON ON JULY 14 WILL
ONCE AGAIN BRING WATER LEVELS IN THE MOST VULNERABLE COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS.
THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ARE THE MORE VULNERABLE
LOCALES OF COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND WESTCHESTER, AND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BAYS OF NASSAU AND QUEENS.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.
VFR.
LIGHT S/SW WINDS FOR MORNING PUSH, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE TEENS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
S SUSTAINED WINDS 16-20KT LIKELY FOR JFK BTWN 20 AND 24Z, WITH
LATE DAY GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE FOR LGA.
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN FREQUENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW-W WINDS 15-20G25-30KT. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHRA/TSRA LATE WED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT
S FLOW TO START TODAY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING.
A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT DUE TO A SW FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30KT. OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST EAST. WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET OUT 20 NM.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE COMBO OF ONSHORE S FLOW INCREASING TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
BUILDING WIND WAVES TO 2 TO 3 FT, PLUS GREATER THAN USUAL TIDAL
FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON, SHOULD INCREASE THE RISK
TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD START AT MODERATE ON TUE, BUT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3-5 FT BY
LATE DAY. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE RIP RISK TO HIGH BY LATE DAY JUST
AS MOST LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH PATROLS FINISH ROUTINE DAILY
OPERATIONS. THE HIGHER RISK, ONCE AGAIN ENHANCED BY GREATER THAN
USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON.
THAT HIGH RISK (IF IT DEVELOPS) COULD LAST INTO WED MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SUFFOLK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 104/1995
KBDR: 97/1995
KNYC: 102/1995
KLGA: 103/1995
KJFK: 99/1983
KISP: 97/1995
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 82/1995
KBDR: 76/2013
KNYC: 84/1995
KLGA: 83/1995
KJFK: 79/1995
KISP: 77/1995
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CTZ005>010.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078-176>179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...NV/DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DW
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