177
FXUS61 KOKX 140758
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCLUDE COASTAL SOUTHEAST CT
AND ALL OF EASTERN LI FOR WEDNESDAY. NW SUFFOLK HAS ALSO BEEN
INCLUDED IN THE HEAT ADVISORY WHICH BEGINS TODAY AND RUNS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES EXTENDED INTO
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) SEASONABLE WARMTH RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND.
3) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (SEE MARINE
DISCUSSION).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ANOMALOUSLY WARM 50H HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS A 600 DM HIGH (+3SD) OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXPANDS EAST. COMING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BE VERY WARM AIR FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THAT SPILLS INTO THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH +22C AIR AT 85H MOVING IN BY THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL RESULT IN A CAPPED
AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF SUN AS THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACHIEVED ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S, WARMEST ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST. A GUSTY SW FLOW UP TO 30 MPH WILL
KEEP COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER DUE TO SOME MARINE INFLUENCE.
HOWEVER, THIS CHANGES ON WEDNESDAY AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO GET INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100. WHAT IS
UNIQUE ABOUT THIS SETUP IS THAT GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NYC METRO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND. THIS
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE READINGS AROUND 100. WITH DEW POINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S, EXPECT HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 ACROSS ALL
BUT EASTERN LI AND COASTAL SE CT TODAY AND CLOSER TO AROUND 100
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO VERY SLOWLY
LOWER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THIS PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY
GOING FORWARD INTO THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING TEMPERATURES FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODEL
SUITE WITH HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS.
DURING THIS TIME, THE AIRMASS WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED AND DRY.
THIS WILL HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MIGHT INTERACT WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO BREAK THE CAP WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
AS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD, THE NBM WAS
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD, MAINLY AT COASTAL LOCATIONS BASED ON ITS
WARM SEASON BIAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS ALOFT OVERALL
WILL BE LOWER, WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING TO OUR NORTH
DURING THIS TIME.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL IF NOT BELOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND A FRONTAL WAVE
TRACKING ALONG IT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FORM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
VFR THRU PERIOD.
S/SW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT VEERING TO WSW THIS MORNING MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE TO 15G20-25 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, SUBSIDING TO AROUND 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR. WSW 10-15 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. W/NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE WED.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR. W/NW WINDS, WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT FOR SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA/TSRA, PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFT/EVE.
MARINE
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, LI SOUND EAST OF
THE CT RIVER, AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. THIS IS
DUE TO A INCREASING SW FLOW WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. OCEAN SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO END FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AND THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
SANDY HOOK AND FIRE ISLAND INLET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN ZONES OUT 20 NM WILL STAY UP INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LINGERING SEAS OF 5-6 FT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD START AT MODERATE TODAY, BUT AS SW
WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT, WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 3-5 FT
BY LATE DAY (HIGHEST EASTERN LI BEACHES). THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
THE RIP RISK TO HIGH BY LATE DAY JUST AS MOST LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH
PATROLS FINISH ROUTINE DAILY OPERATIONS. THE HIGHER RISK, WILL
BE ENHANCED BY GREATER THAN USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE
UPCOMING NEW MOON.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO START WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT WITH 4-6
FT SW WIND WAVES, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS WSW
WINDS DECREASE. EASTERN LI BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO THE
HIGH RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED AT
3-5FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE NYC/ W LI BEACHES LIKELY
FALL BACK TO A MODERATE RISK.
FORECAST IS LEANED TOWARDS A GREATER MARGIN OF SAFETY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 104/1995
KBDR: 97/1995
KNYC: 102/1995
KLGA: 103/1995
KJFK: 99/1983
KISP: 97/1995
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 82/1995
KBDR: 76/2013
KNYC: 84/1995
KLGA: 83/1995
KJFK: 79/1995
KISP: 77/1995
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CTZ005>010.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ067>075-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ078-080.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DW
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