707
FXUS61 KOKX 150531
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES MAY BE LIMITED BY WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
CANADA.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
3) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
WITH SOME SPOTS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 80F.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH 925MB
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 26C. UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE, THIS WOULD YIELD A WARMER DAY THAN TODAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL ONTARIO. HIGH LEVEL
SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE REGION
TODAY, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY ALOFT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT COULD BECOME OPAQUE ENOUGH TO
LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NEAR SURFACE SMOKE WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THE LEAST, EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL MAKE FOR
NICE SUNRISES/SUNSETS, BUT IT COULD ALSO PUT OUR HEAT ADVISORY
FOR WEDNESDAY IN JEOPARDY BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS CLOSELY GOING FORWARD.
THE WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH CAMS ARE SPLIT ON
THIS. WE WILL BE CAPPED BY A WARM LAYER AROUND 850 MB, WHICH WOULD
SERVE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED 15-30% POPS AS WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR LATE WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY HOT BUT LESS HUMID. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT PLEASE
CONTINUE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AS IT WILL STILL BE HOT,
EVEN IF IT'S NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK
BECOMES MORE AFFECTED BY THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR
THE WEEKEND. POTENTIALLY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH DEEPER TROUGHING LOOKING TO SET UP NEXT WEEK OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS.
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN A BIT MORE THAN
USUAL. LATEST GFS SHOWS TWO MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHERE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY. REGARDLESS,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
IT IS TOO FAR OUT FOR DETAILS ON STRENGTH/SEVERITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST CIPS AND CSU MLP GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE AIRMASS, ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE 72HR
QPF ENDING WEDNESDAY AT 12Z. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN
OVERALL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY. THE SPREAD IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
A FEW TENTHS TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THIS 3 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA COULD BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
MVFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SLANTWISE VSBYS MAY
BE REDUCED AS WELL.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
SW WINDS 10-15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME OUTLYING
TERMINALS DIMINISHING BELOW 10 KT BRIEFLY. WSW-W WINDS 10-15 KT
EXPECTED AFTER DAY BREAK WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS 25-30 KT AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 20Z-00Z. WINDS VEER TO THE WNW-NW AFTER
22Z WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE 19Z-00Z.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/EXTENT WILDFIRE SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE.
THURSDAY: SMOKE WITH MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE. W-WSW WINDS G20KT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, LI SOUND EAST OF
THE CT RIVER, AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. THIS IS
DUE TO A INCREASING SW FLOW WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. OCEAN SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO END FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AND THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
SANDY HOOK AND FIRE ISLAND INLET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN ZONES OUT 20 NM WILL STAY UP INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LINGERING SEAS OF 5-6 FT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP RISK IS INCREASING TO HIGH THROUGH LATE DAY, JUST AS
MOST LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH PATROLS FINISH ROUTINE DAILY
OPERATIONS. THE HIGHER RISK, WILL BE ENHANCED BY GREATER THAN
USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO START WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT WITH 4-6
FT SW WIND WAVES, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS WSW
WINDS DECREASE. EASTERN LI BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO THE
HIGH RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED AT
3-5FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE NYC/ W LI BEACHES LIKELY
FALL BACK TO A MODERATE RISK.
FORECAST IS LEANED TOWARDS A GREATER MARGIN OF SAFETY.
THE RISK LOWERS TO MODERATE FOR THURSDAY AS SWELL CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. A LINGERING 2-3 FT 6S SW SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH
ABOUT A 10 KT S FLOW TO BRING THE MODERATE RISK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN BROOKLYN AND QUEENS TO LOWER TO A LOW
RISK BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS THEY SHOULD BE LESS IMPACTED BY THE
SW SWELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 104/1995
KBDR: 97/1995
KNYC: 102/1995
KLGA: 103/1995
KJFK: 99/1983
KISP: 97/1995
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 82/1995
KBDR: 76/2013
KNYC: 84/1995
KLGA: 83/1995
KJFK: 79/1995
KISP: 77/1995
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>010.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078-
176>179.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ079>081.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ332-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...MH/JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MH/JT
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