227
FXUS61 KOKX 151831
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMOKE FORECAST EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT, HUMID, AND SMOKEY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY BEHIND WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PERIODS OF SMOKEY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING.
IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS.
3) INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS
WEEKEND, WITH CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING.
4) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES TODAY (SEE
MARINE DISCUSSION).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS
WITH FOR THE NEAR TERM, ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED PLUME OF SMOKE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SMOKE
IS FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
AND EXPECT WE'LL SEE AREAS OF LOWERED VISIBILITY DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PLUME OF DENSEST SMOKE WILL
SHIFT SOUTH OF OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SETS UP
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC, SO THERE COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT. NOTE
THAT BOTH NY AND CT BOTH HAVE AIR QUALITY ALERTS FROM THEIR
RESPECTIVE STATE AGENCIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WHILE NJ RUNS
THEIRS ALL THE WAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE SMOKE HAS SERVED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT, MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE
REGION CONTINUES TO SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND
95F TO AROUND 105F, SO HAVE KEPT THE HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE
FOR NOW, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE'RE JUST GETTING TOWARD THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE DAY. THESE HEADLINES MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED
EARLY IF TRENDS HOLD, THOUGH.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE WORST OF THE
SMOKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, ANOTHER CONCENTRATED
PLUME IS PROGGED TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WE'LL ONCE AGAIN SEE WIDESPREAD
REDUCED VISIBILITY, PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN WHAT WE'RE SEEING SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOW LONG THIS SECOND PLUME HANGS AROUND IS
STILL UNCLEAR, AS WE'LL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS THEREAFTER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
SMOKE MAY ONCE AGAIN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY THOUGH, SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
WHILE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY DRY AND CAPPED DUE TO WARM AIR
ALOFT, SHEAR IS AMPLE AT 40-50 KT. THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTH, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE QUESTION IS IF FORCING FROM
THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOP.
CONVECTION COULD BE INHIBITED BY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE SMOKE, OR THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE
SMOKIER "OVERCAST" CONDITIONS VS RELATIVELY "CLEAR" CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN PLUME COULD HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND STRENGTHEN, THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW WOULD SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE'S STILL PLENTY
OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY THE
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OF 12+ KFT, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES. NOTE THAT THE DAY 4 ERO FROM WPC SHOWS A BROAD
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NOTHING
SET IN STONE AT THIS POINT SINCE WE'RE STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, BUT
IT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TODAY.
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS CURRENTLY LOWERING VSBY TO AROUND
3 TO 6 MILES FOR MOST TERMINALS. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, POTENTIALLY LOWERING VSBY AS LOW
AS IFR AT TIMES. IF IFR WERE TO OCCUR, THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR THAT WOULD BE THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.
MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF VFR WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SLANTWISE VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS.
SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS 25-30 KT AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 20Z-00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER TO THE
WNW-NW AFTER 22Z. GUSTS QUICKLY END AFTER 00Z WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT. NW FLOW BACKS TOWARDS THE WEST
THURSDAY MORNING. A GUSTY W/NW FLOW THEN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.
VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND IFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE
TO FU. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THIS WOULD BE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY EVENING. MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF VFR WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/EXTENT WILDFIRE SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY: IFR VSBY DUE TO SMOKE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
W-WSW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET UNTIL 2PM THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HERE REMAIN
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 5 FT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL
LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES. SW SWELLS OF 4-5 FT AT 6 SEC GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE RISK LOWERS TO MODERATE FOR THURSDAY AS SWELLS AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RELATIVE TO WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 104/1995
KBDR: 97/1995
KNYC: 102/1995
KLGA: 103/1995
KJFK: 99/1983
KISP: 97/1995
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 82/1995
KBDR: 76/2013
KNYC: 84/1995
KLGA: 83/1995
KJFK: 79/1995
KISP: 77/1995
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MH
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DR
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