086
FXUS61 KOKX 160543
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT BUT DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND WEAK
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PERIODS OF SMOKY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECTED AT TIMES
THIS WEEKEND, WITH CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE HOT
BUT DRIER ON THU, WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA AND MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES LESS THAN 95, AS DRIER
AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S MOVES IN.
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SHORT
TERM, ALONG WITH HOT BUT DRIER CONDITIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED PLUME OF SMOKE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SMOKE IS
FOCUSED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWED THIS SMOKE
WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING. THE PLUME OF DENSEST SMOKE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC, SO THERE
COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT. NOTE THAT BOTH NY AND CT BOTH HAVE
AIR QUALITY ALERTS FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE STATE AGENCIES UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WHILE NJ RUNS THEIRS ALL THE WAY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE WORST OF THE
SMOKE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, ANOTHER CONCENTRATED
PLUME IS PROGGED TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WE'LL ONCE AGAIN SEE WIDESPREAD
REDUCED VISIBILITY, PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN WHAT WE'RE SEEING SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOW LONG THIS SECOND PLUME HANGS AROUND IS
STILL UNCLEAR, AS WE'LL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS THEREAFTER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE
SMOKE MAY ONCE AGAIN SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH BY FRIDAY THOUGH, SO
HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED GOING FORWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE'S STILL PLENTY
OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY THE
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGES AND PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
LOOKS TO INCREASE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH PW POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF DEEP WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OF 12+ KFT, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PROCESSES. NOTE THAT THE DAY 4 ERO FROM WPC SHOWS A BROAD
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WESTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
NOTHING'S SET IN STONE AT THIS POINT SINCE WE'RE STILL A FEW
DAYS OUT, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THE WEEKEND DRAWS CLOSER.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WILDFIRE SMOKE EMANATING FROM CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
VSBYS AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, MOST LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EVENING. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
AND A FEW TERMINALS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR. SLANTWISE VSBYS
WILL BE REDUCED AS WELL.
LIGHT NW FLOW WILL BACK TOWARDS THE W THIS MORNING AND THEN W-SW
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NW THIS EVENING AS SPEEDS DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF LOWERING VSBYS DUE TO FU. THERE
IS A CHANCE VSBYS BRIEFLY LOWER TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
GUSTS COULD BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MVFR POSSIBLE IN FU WITH CHANCE OF VFR BY DAY
BREAK FRIDAY.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS IN THE MORNING.
MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SCA COND POSSIBLE ON ALL OCEAN WATERS LATE DAY SAT, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT E
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHILE SEAS ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT. THESE
HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR THU AND FRI,
AS SWELLS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RELATIVE TO THOSE OF WED
AND ITS ATTENDANT HIGH RISK, AND WITH BOTH DAYS FEATURING SOME
ONSHORE FLOW, WITH SW FLOW 10-15 KT ON THU AND S AROUND 10 KT
ON FRI.
OUTLOOK: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR FOR LATE
DAY SAT AS S FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
4-5 FT AND WATER LEVELS EBBING TOWARD A LATE AFTERNOON LOW TIDE.
THE HIGH RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WED JULY 15:
KEWR: 82/1995
KBDR: 76/2013
KNYC: 84/1995
KLGA: 83/1995
KJFK: 79/1995
KISP: 77/1995
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/99
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...GOODMAN/99
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