716
FXUS61 KOKX 161738
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND AIR
QUALITY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE AREA REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH, WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW WILDFIRE SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM ONTARIO TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HAZE, AND AS THE PLUME MIXES DOWN
TO THE SURFACE, LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES (2 TO 5 SM) AT
TIMES, AS WELL AS A DECLINE IN AIR QUALITY. AIR QUALITY ALERTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY RESPECTIVE STATE AGENCIES FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA TODAY.
HI RES DISPERSION MODELING FROM THE HRRR AND REFS INDICATES
NEAR SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS PEAK LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING
BEFORE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IS ABLE TO PUSH
HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SMOKE PLUME DECREASES AFTER TONIGHT THOUGH
GIVEN THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE TRANSPORT, AS WELL
AS LIMITATIONS IN THE TEMPORAL RANGE OF RELATED GUIDANCE. WHILE
THE SMOKE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AS CONCENTRATED LOCALLY ON FRIDAY,
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
IN ADDITION, THOUGH THE BACKGROUND THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WOULD
OTHERWISE SUGGEST ANOTHER RELATIVELY HOT DAY, THE REDUCTION IN
SOLAR INSOLATION COULD RESULT IN SOMEWHAT MUTED TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS, OPTED TO LOWER
FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE, GENERALLY
IN THE 80S FOR MOST, OR LOW 90S IN THE URBAN METRO. DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE, DEW PTS NOW NEAR 60, SHOULD MITIGATE THE MUGGINESS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST, LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE LOOKS WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOULD IT OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CONDITIONS TURN MORE UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE THIS
WEEK, SWINGING AROUND TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE PICTURE IS BECOMING
CLEARER THAT SATURDAY WILL BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO DAYS THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. THOUGH UNLIKELY TO BE AN ALL DAY
WASHOUT, CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES THAT COULD EXTEND INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, AND SPC ADDED A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR MOST OF THE AREA
ON SAT.
OVERALL QPF AVERAGES BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH THIS
WEEKEND, MAINLY SAT AND SAT NIGHT, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY. WPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH CSU'S MLP OFFERING A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK, SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOOD
CONCERNS. MODELED PWATS RISE TO AROUND OR ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOOD CONCERN, THE ABUNDANTLY MOIST
AIR MASS AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD ALLOW FOR A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT IN CONVECTIVE MAXIMA.
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVE BY LATER SUNDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH. HEADING
INTO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WARMEST PERIOD OF THE YEAR,
TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN NEAR CLIMO, WITH
MOST AFTERNOONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS EVE. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W ON FRI.
IN GENERAL, MVFR SMOKE THRU TNGT, THEN ALL AREAS VFR ON FRI
ESPECIALLY AFT 12Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT THIS AFTN
AND EVE. THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA IS FAVORED. STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IF ANY, SO ONLY CARRY A PROB30 IN THE
TAFS FOR SRN ARPTS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS FURTHER N. WINDOW FOR TSTMS IS MAINLY 20-00Z. ANY TSTMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AOA 30KT.
W/WNW FLOW VEERS TO THE NW THIS EVE, THEN BECOMES LV AFT 4Z. NW
FLOW MAINLY BLW 12KT FRI MRNG BACKS TO THE SW THRU THE DAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VIS IN FU THRU TNGT.
WINDS THRU THIS EVE OUTSIDE OF TSTMS MAY BE LOWER THAN
INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO FU IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
REST OF FRIDAY: VFR THEN MVFR POSSIBLE FRI NGT WITH FU
RETURNING.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR UNLESS THERE AREA FU IMPACTS.
TUESDAY: A FRONTAL SYS MAY BRING MVFR OR LOWER AND A CHANCE OF
TSTMS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.
SCA CONDITIONS THEN APPEAR LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25
KT DEVELOPING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT
E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHILE SEAS ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT. THE
HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOWERING.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS PLACE TODAY AND FRIDAY, AS
SWELLS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RELATIVE TO THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS FEATURE SOME ONSHORE FLOW, WITH SW FLOW
10-15 KT TODAY AND S AROUND 10 KT ON FRIDAY. SW SWELLS GRADUALLY
LOWER TO 2 FT (5-6 SEC PERIODS) DURING THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR FOR LATE
DAY SAT AS S FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
4-5 FT AND WATER LEVELS EBBING TOWARD A LATE AFTERNOON LOW TIDE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DR
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