247
FXUS61 KOKX 161823
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
223 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND AIR
QUALITY THROUGH TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN ON
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TRI
STATE REGION TONIGHT. LOOKING AT VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY
DATA, THE THICKEST SMOKE SEEMS TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MI ACROSS
ONTARIO AND DOWN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA, AND
JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NJ. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS SMOKE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, ONCE AGAIN LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY. IT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
THEN IT SHOULD BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS SMOKE COULD LIFT
BACK NORTH LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A FLOW TURNS BACK
TOWARD THE S/SW. REGARDLESS, AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT ON POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE THICKEST PLUME OF SMOKE HAS KEPT
DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM SO FAR, AND IN GENERAL EXPECT THIS TREND
WILL HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FORCING IS WEAK AS WELL, WITH JUST A
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT DRAPED SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NY/PA
BORDER, AND ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN AREAS OF RELATIVELY
THICKER SMOKE VS RELATIVELY THINNER SMOKE. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, IF
SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP, IT COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG GIVEN AMPLE
SHEAR, BUT THERE'S STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IF ANYTHING WILL BE
ABLE TO FORM. WE'VE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW, BUT
WOULDN'T BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF WE SEE ONE OR TWO
THUNDERSTORMS POP UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MOVEMENT WILL BE QUICK AND COVERAGE ISOLATED, SO DON'T
ANTICIPATE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NE CONUS. INCREASING SW FLOW AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALLOW A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH PWATS PROGGED TO
POTENTIALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, PARTICULARLY LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. FLOW SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO KEEP INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WARM CLOUD DEPTHS 13+ KFT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. WE REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) IN THE DAY 3 ERO.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING DECIDEDLY DRIER AS MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BOTH WEEKEND DAYS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAT SATURDAY, WITH
DEWPOINTS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS EVE. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W ON FRI.
IN GENERAL, MVFR SMOKE THRU TNGT, THEN ALL AREAS VFR ON FRI
ESPECIALLY AFT 12Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT THIS AFTN
AND EVE. THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA IS FAVORED. STILL LOW
CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE IF ANY, SO ONLY CARRY A PROB30 IN THE
TAFS FOR SRN ARPTS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IF DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS FURTHER N. WINDOW FOR TSTMS IS MAINLY 20-00Z. ANY TSTMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AOA 30KT.
W/WNW FLOW VEERS TO THE NW THIS EVE, THEN BECOMES LV AFT 4Z. NW
FLOW MAINLY BLW 12KT FRI MRNG BACKS TO THE SW THRU THE DAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VIS IN FU THRU TNGT.
WINDS THRU THIS EVE OUTSIDE OF TSTMS MAY BE LOWER THAN
INDICATED IN THE TAFS DUE TO FU IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
REST OF FRIDAY: VFR THEN MVFR POSSIBLE FRI NGT WITH FU
RETURNING.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR UNLESS THERE AREA FU IMPACTS.
TUESDAY: A FRONTAL SYS MAY BRING MVFR OR LOWER AND A CHANCE OF
TSTMS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.
SCA CONDITIONS THEN APPEAR LIKELY ON AT LEAST THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25
KT DEVELOPING. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT
E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHILE SEAS ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT. THE
HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOWERING.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS PLACE TODAY AND FRIDAY, AS
SWELLS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RELATIVE TO THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS FEATURE SOME ONSHORE FLOW, WITH SW FLOW
10-15 KT TODAY AND S AROUND 10 KT ON FRIDAY. SW SWELLS GRADUALLY
LOWER TO 2 FT (5-6 SEC PERIODS) DURING THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR FOR LATE
DAY SAT AS S FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
4-5 FT AND WATER LEVELS EBBING TOWARD A LATE AFTERNOON LOW TIDE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MH
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DR
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