911
FXUS61 KOKX 162048
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
448 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND AIR
QUALITY THROUGH TONIGHT. AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
2) ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LESS LIKELY THIS
EVENING WITH THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
SOUTHERN NJ. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN
ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TRI
STATE REGION TONIGHT. LOOKING AT VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY
DATA, THE THICKEST SMOKE SEEMS TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MI ACROSS
ONTARIO AND DOWN THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA, AND
JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NJ. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS SMOKE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, ONCE AGAIN LOWERING
VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY. IT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
THEN IT SHOULD BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS SMOKE COULD LIFT
BACK NORTH LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A FLOW TURNS BACK
TOWARD THE S/SW. REGARDLESS, AIR QUALITY ALERTS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, SO PLEASE
CONTINUE TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SO FAR HAS FOCUSED
ALONG A WARM FRONT RUNNING THROUGH THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA,
WITH STORM MOTION TO THE ESE. SMOKE TO THE NORTH HAS INHIBITED
MOST CU DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THERE, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF CU
DRIFTING SE FROM THE POCONOS AND NW NJ, AND LATEST CAM'S DO
DEVELOP ISOLATED PRECIP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS, SO WILL LEAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP MENTION IN FOR THE NYC METRO AREA IN FOR
LATE TODAY.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP, IT COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR, BUT THERE'S STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IF ANYTHING WILL BE ABLE TO FORM. WE'VE STAYED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NOW, BUT WOULDN'T BE COMPLETELY
SURPRISED IF WE SEE ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS POP UP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MOVEMENT WILL BE QUICK AND
COVERAGE ISOLATED, SO DON'T ANTICIPATE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NE CONUS. INCREASING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE INCOMING TROUGH WILL ALLOW A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS TO
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH PWATS PROGGED
TO POTENTIALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, PARTICULARLY LATER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. FLOW SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO KEEP INDIVIDUAL
CELLS MOVING ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS,
BUT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS 13+ KFT. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WE REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK (1/4) IN THE DAY 3 ERO.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING DECIDEDLY DRIER AS MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. BOTH WEEKEND DAYS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S,
BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAT SATURDAY, WITH
DEWPOINTS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SATURDAY.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS EVE. HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W ON FRI.
IN GENERAL, MVFR/IFR SMOKE THRU TNGT, THEN ALL AREAS VFR ON FRI
ESPECIALLY AFT 12Z.
CHANCES FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE FRONT HAVE LOWERED AND
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT MOST, SO HAVE REMOVED PROB30 MENTION FROM
KJFK/KISP. WINDOW FOR ANY TSTMS IS MAINLY 20Z-24Z. ANY TSTMS
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AOA 30KT, BUT THAT THREAT IS VERY LOW.
W FLOW VEERS TO THE NW THIS EVE, THEN BECOMES LIGHT/VRB AFTER
MIDNIGHT. NW FLOW MAINLY BLW 12KT FRI MRNG BACKS TO THE SW THRU
THE DAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD POSSIBLE FOR VSBY IN SMOKE THRU TNGT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR COND POSSIBLE WITH SMOKE RETURNING.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS
AND SMOKE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR UNLESS THERE ARE SMOKE IMPACTS.
TUESDAY: A FRONTAL SYS MAY BRING MVFR OR LOWER COND AND A CHANCE
OF TSTMS.
MARINE
SCA COND APPEAR LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND ERN SOUND LATE
DAY SAT, WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS UP TO 25 KT DEVELOPING.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SAT NIGHT ON THE OCEAN,
WHILE SEAS ALSO BUILD TO 5 FT. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS COULD LINGER E
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET INTO SUNDAY BEFORE LOWERING.
SCA COND ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED AHEAD
OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS PLACE TODAY AND FRIDAY, AS
SWELLS AND WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RELATIVE TO THOSE ON
WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS FEATURE SOME ONSHORE FLOW, WITH SW FLOW
10-15 KT TODAY AND S AROUND 10 KT ON FRIDAY. SW SWELLS GRADUALLY
LOWER TO 2 FT (5-6 SEC PERIODS) DURING THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR FOR LATE
DAY SAT AS S FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
4-5 FT AND WATER LEVELS EBBING TOWARD A LATE AFTERNOON LOW TIDE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MH/BG
AVIATION...JMC/BG
MARINE...BG
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