355
FXUS61 KOKX 180543
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NJ, NYC AND SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS NOW AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ, NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL OCEAN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE NY
HARBOR AND WESTERN LI SOUND FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
STATE DEPS/DECS HAVE ISSUED AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR OUR ENTIRE
AREA FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NJ, NYC AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY. (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION)
3) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
INTO A PORTION OF WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY
AND SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US SATURDAY
NIGHT. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES
OVERHEAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THESE FEATURES WILL CAUSE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHEAST
NJ, NYC AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS WATCH
TO EXPAND, BUT FOR NOW HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THESE MORE
SENSITIVE URBAN AREAS. WHILE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE QUICK MOVING, IT
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT
IS CAUSING THE FLASH FLOOD RISK. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW
PWATS REACHING BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES. THIS IS WELL ABOVE THE
OBSERVED 90TH PERCENTILE PER OKX RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. PEAK HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UPWARDS TO 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.
THE SPC HAS UPGRADED WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ, NYC AND
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION,
LINGERING SMOKE AND CLOUDS. THINKING THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IF WE CAN'T CLEAR OUT AFTER
EARLIER WARM ADVECTION ACTIVITY, THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE A BIT
LOWER. AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, LATEST CAMS HAVE THE
AREA DESTABILIZING TO ABOUT 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, WITH
~1000 J/KG OF DCAPE. WIND PROFILES ALOFT ARE ALSO RESULTING IN
~40 KT OF EBWD AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CURVATURE. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CANADA JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BE THE DRIVER OF THE UPCOMING WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING, AND
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING, BUT A ISOLATED STORM GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST, CUTTING OFF CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, GENERAL HIGH
PRESSURE WEATHER WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
TODAY. EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT.
THEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE INCREASING CONCENTRATION OF
SMOKE IN THE LOW LEVELS RETURNING THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SMOKE. MVFR OR LOWER CIGS MORE
LIKELY FOR EASTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD EXPECTED A LIGHT S WIND WITH MORE
OUTLYING TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE, SW/S WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH
G20-25KT, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS. LOW
CHANCE FOR SW LLWS BELOW 2KFT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CHANCE OF MVFR DEVELOPING IN SMOKE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR OR LOWER IN THE
SMOKE.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE NY
HARBOR AND WESTERN LI SOUND FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL LIKELY JUST REACH 25 KT, WITH 5 FT SEAS FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES.
CONDITIONS ARE THEN QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF 7 TO 10 FT SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE OVERALL RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW TODAY WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS
AT OR UNDER 10 KT AND S SWELLS 1-2 FT AT 5 SEC PERIODS.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT AND A RESULTING WIND
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE. THERE IS ALSO A SE SWELL AROUND 1
FOOT AT 14S.
ON SUNDAY, THE HIGH RISK LIKELY ONLY CONTINUES FOR SUFFOLK
COUNTY AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
LINGERING 5 TO 6 FT SWELL AT 7S BUT SATURDAY'S WINDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NYZ071>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR ANZ331-332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...KL/JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT
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