727
FXUS61 KOKX 271846
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
246 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
3) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
A COASTAL LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING PRIMARILY
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH LOCALIZED LIFT AND SUFFICIENT
SBCAPES, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND AT LEAST SMALL
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY SPOTS THAT DON'T HAVE MUCH OF ANY
SHOWER RISK ARE THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF FAIRFIELD, NEW HAVEN,
MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES THEN DROP OFF
LATE THIS EVENING. REGARDING FLOODING IMPACTS, A LONG SKINNY
CAPE PROFILE AND SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHERE A QUICK INCH IN AN HOUR CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE OF A NUISANCE FLOODING THAN
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE THREAT FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL/FLOOD EVENT WILL COME
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING, A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIVE DOWN TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND BECOME CLOSED OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT WITH
THE 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE THAT THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER
OR NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCE WITH HOW THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE SURFACE
LOW/POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER
SHOWING A STRONGER LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. REGARDLESS, HEAVY RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
NOW WHILE EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS LIKELY WITH A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THE ONSET, A LOW TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL
KEEP THE AIRMASS MORE STABLE, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF A STRATIFORM
RAIN AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN SO, DEEP MOISTURE AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW, WILL MAKE FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES.
THE FLOOD THREAT COULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LONG DURATION VERSUS
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME AND
RANGES FROM 1.50 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT, TO 2 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES ARE MORE OF
QUESTION BASED ON THE LOW TRACK AND HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS GETS.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL AXIS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
HOWEVER, KNOW THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON MIDWEEK AND AN ONSHORE E/SE
FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING CLOSE BY, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS A POSSIBILITY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME. LATEST FORECAST BRINGS SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAY LOCATIONS OF LI AND WESTERN LI SOUND TO JUST BELOW
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOSTLY VFR, HOWEVER MVFR IN PROB30 FOR TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR ALL BUT KBDR/KGON. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING PUSH ALONG WITH POTENTIAL SHOWERS.
MVFR AND SHOWERS ARE THEN LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
A THUNDERSTORM AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAIN.
S/SE WINDS AROUND 10KT, BECOMING LIGHTER AND VEERING SLIGHTLY.
S-SE GUSTS NEAR 20KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CHANCE THAT PROB30 FOR TSRA THIS AFTN/EVENING COULD BE REMOVED WITH
AMENDMENTS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY PM: MVFR IN SHRA/TSTM, CHC IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. S-SE
WINDS G15-20KT.
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS OF RIGHT
NOW, CONDITIONS LOOK MARGINAL, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 25 TO 30 KT
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OCEAN SEAS PEAKING AT
5 TO 6 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH OF WINDS.
THEREAFTER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO DECREASE AND SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH A S FLOW PEAKING
AROUND 10 KT AND A WEAK E SWELL AT 2 FT 7S.
THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ON TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH RISK LATE IN THE DAY. FOR NOW STUCK WITH A MODERATE, BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT MIGHT BE
NEEDED. A S/SE FLOW INCREASES TO 15-20 KT WITH A 4FT 5S S/SE SWELL.
BOTH RCMOS AND LOCAL GUIDANCE SHOW BORDERLINE MODERATE/HIGH RISK BY
THE AFTERNOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ067>075-176>179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-340-350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ335-338-345-353-355.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
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