720
FXUS61 KOKX 280326
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1126 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT HAS LOWERED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLOODING
DURING THIS TIME.
2) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
COASTAL LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE
FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
INTO UPSTATE NY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND FALLS
BELOW 1000 MB. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BOTH THE 500 MB AND 1000
MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE NEAR ALL TIME LOWS (WELL BELOW THE
TENTH PERCENTILE USING THE NAEFS). THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES IS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AXIS AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
NYC, NE NJ, AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE 12Z HREF
SHOWS A HIGH NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITY OF 70%+ FOR AN INCH
PLUS/HOURLY RATES BY TUESDAY EVENING AND 5 INCH STORM TOTALS IN
THIS CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
SIGNAL FOR 3 INCHES/3 HOURS AT 10 TO 30 PERCENT. WHILE THIS MAY
SEEM LOW, THESE PROBABILITIES ARE A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HIGH HOURLY
PRECIPITATION RATES. THE WPC URBAN RAIN RATE DASHBOARD (URRD) IS
ALSO SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FOR THESE RATES WITH SOME
MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING HOURLY RATES WITH ANNUAL
RETURN INTERVALS (ARI) OF 50 TO 100 YEARS. BOTTOM LINE, THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EVENT. HOWEVER THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS
AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY COME IN SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED BANDS
AS ADVERTISED BY THE CAMS AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE UPPER LOW ALONG
WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY, THESE
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE WATCH AREA, WEAKENING AS THEY PIVOT EAST. HOWEVER, AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND LOW LEVEL JET WORK EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY WORK ACROSS LI AND SOUTHEAST CT.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS TOTAL AT 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TOTALS
AND THIS AREA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY GETS JUST
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NY/NJ METRO. THERE IS DECENT
TURNING OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WITH A 2 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. LCLS ARE LOW AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL.
HOWEVER. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR AND DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTING
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST AND HOURLY RATES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. LOWS THOUGH WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON MIDWEEK AND AN ONSHORE E/SE
FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING CLOSE BY, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS A POSSIBILITY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME. LATEST FORECAST BRINGS SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAY LOCATIONS OF LI AND WESTERN LI SOUND TO JUST BELOW
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT, DECLINING TO MVFR OR LOWER BY LATE TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE A MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY WORKS EAST OVER THE
TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE.
ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT AND LARGE
HAIL. THE SHOWERS LIKELY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY, S/SE UNDER 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. S/SE GUSTS NEAR 20
KT DEVELOP INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE TUE AM COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA ONSETS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT AND LARGE
HAIL.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY ON TUESDAY FOR CHANGING CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR IFR IN SHRA/TSRA, S-SE WINDS G15-20KT.
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 25 TO 30 KT TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND OCEAN SEAS PEAKING AT 5 TO 6 FT TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACT LOW TRACK AND STRENGTH OF WINDS.
THEREAFTER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO DECREASE AND SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIPS AT ALL BEACHES ON TUESDAY, THOUGH IT'S
BORDERLINE HIGH IN THE LATER AFTERNOON AS SWELL BUILDS IN. WINDS
10-15KTS AND INCREASING BY LATER AFTERNOON. RCMOS HAS MAINTAINED
A MAINLY MODERATE RISK, PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF SWELL.
A HIGH RIP RISK THEN IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH SURF
HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT, AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 7-8S.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR CTZ005-006-009-010.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ067>075-176>179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ335-338-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DW
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