616
FXUS61 KOKX 280806
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY ARE NOW INCLUDED IN THE
FLOOD WATCH.
THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS TRENDED LATER. HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH END TIME TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO
PUSHED BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLOOD WATCH TO 2 PM TODAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND COUNTIES IN THE WATCH.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR ALL OCEAN
BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
(SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION)
3) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
COASTAL LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES DOWN
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THIS BECOMES CLOSED OFF AND SITS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS
IT APPROACHES TODAY AND OCCLUDES, ALSO LINGERING NEARBY THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SUB 1000MB LOW. IT IS NOTED
IN WPC'S DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION THAT THE 500-850MB
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 1ST PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO NAEFS BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND PWATS
PEAKING AROUND 2 INCHES IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT. THE WPC MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4)
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE 7/28 00Z CAMS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FLOOD
WATCH TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS NOTED IN THE WHAT HAS
CHANGED SECTION ABOVE. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH. THE
7/28 00Z HREF HAD A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT, WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. BACK TO BACK RUNS HAVE NOW
SHOWN THE HEAVIEST TOTALS BEING IN THIS AREA. IN GENERAL, AN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN CT. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE LATEST HREF PMM SHOWING A MAX OF
7+ IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AN
AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE CAMS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW PEAK HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS ALSO
FOCUSED MORE ON THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, BUT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE IN THE AREA.
THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED BANDS LATER TODAY. THEY THEN
PIVOT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SETTLES. LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE 7/28 06Z HRRR IS SHOWING THE LOW DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE,
WHICH IS A BIG CHANGE FROM THE 00Z. THIS IS A TREND WORTH
MONITORING AND WOULD MEAN LESS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC. THIS IS SHOWN IN SPC'S LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK, BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG) COULD
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SOME COLLAPSING
STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SEVERE THREAT LOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GIVEN YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR RIVER
FLOODING. WHILE CURRENT RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GO INTO FLOOD AND WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED,
IT WILL HAVE TO MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON MIDWEEK AND AN ONSHORE E/SE
FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING CLOSE BY, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS A POSSIBILITY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME. LATEST FORECAST BRINGS SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAY LOCATIONS OF LI AND WESTERN LI SOUND TO JUST BELOW
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT, DECLINING TO MVFR OR LOWER BY LATE TODAY.
STRATUS OVER SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND MAY TRACK WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT, AND AFFECT KISP AND KBDR TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT AS OF
NOW, LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 15Z (AND POSSIBLY
LATER), BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY WORKS
EAST OVER THE TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT. THE SHOWERS
LIKELY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY, S/SE UNDER 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. S/SE GUSTS AROUND
20 KT DEVELOP INTO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWER OR DRIZZLE TUE AM COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA ONSETS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT AND LARGE
HAIL.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY ON TUESDAY FOR CHANGING CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR IFR IN SHRA/TSRA, S-SE WINDS G15-20KT,
BECOMING VARIABLE LATE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS.
THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A S/SE FLOW INCREASES TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS. THE FLOW PEAKS TONIGHT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS. OCEAN
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH. WHILE THE
MORNING MAY START OFF MORE MODERATE, A STRENGTHENING S/SE FLOW AND
BUILDING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH RISK BY THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH LOCAL GUIDANCE AND RCMOS SHOW THIS.
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MAY
LOWER TO MODERATE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING,
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING S/SE SWELL AROUND 4 TO 5 FT AT 7S.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ005>007-009>011.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ335-338-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JT
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