615
FXUS61 KOKX 281743
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY ARE NOW INCLUDED IN THE
FLOOD WATCH.
THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS TRENDED LATER. HAVE
EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH END TIME TO 8 PM WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO
PUSHED BACK THE START TIME OF THE FLOOD WATCH TO 2 PM TODAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND COUNTIES IN THE WATCH.
A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR ALL OCEAN
BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
(SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION)
3) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
COASTAL LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES DOWN
TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY. THIS BECOMES CLOSED OFF AND SITS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS
IT APPROACHES TODAY AND OCCLUDES, ALSO LINGERING NEARBY THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SUMMERTIME PATTERN
WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SUB 1000MB LOW. IT IS NOTED
IN WPC'S DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION THAT THE 500-850MB
HEIGHTS FALL BELOW THE 1ST PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO NAEFS BY 00Z
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE LIFT AND PWATS
PEAKING AROUND 2 INCHES IS SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT. THE WPC MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4)
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE 7/28 00Z CAMS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FLOOD
WATCH TIMING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS NOTED IN THE WHAT HAS
CHANGED SECTION ABOVE. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.
FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH. THE
7/28 00Z HREF HAD A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT, WITH MORE OF A
FOCUS ON THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. BACK TO BACK RUNS HAVE NOW
SHOWN THE HEAVIEST TOTALS BEING IN THIS AREA. IN GENERAL, AN
AVERAGE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN CT. ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE LATEST HREF PMM SHOWING A MAX OF
7+ IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AN
AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE CAMS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW PEAK HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS IS ALSO
FOCUSED MORE ON THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, BUT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ANYWHERE IN THE AREA.
THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST IN SOUTH TO NORTH ORIENTED BANDS LATER TODAY. THEY THEN
PIVOT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW SETTLES. LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS
STILL SOME SPREAD SEEN IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS. FOR EXAMPLE,
THE 7/28 06Z HRRR IS SHOWING THE LOW DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE,
WHICH IS A BIG CHANGE FROM THE 00Z. THIS IS A TREND WORTH
MONITORING AND WOULD MEAN LESS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC. THIS IS SHOWN IN SPC'S LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK, BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 J/KG) COULD
ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SOME COLLAPSING
STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO OUR
SOUTH. THE SEVERE THREAT LOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
GIVEN YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR RIVER
FLOODING. WHILE CURRENT RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GO INTO FLOOD AND WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED,
IT WILL HAVE TO MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RIP CURRENT RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON MIDWEEK AND AN ONSHORE E/SE
FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING CLOSE BY, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS A POSSIBILITY. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME. LATEST FORECAST BRINGS SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAY LOCATIONS OF LI AND WESTERN LI SOUND TO JUST BELOW
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z
WITH LOCALIZED VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE TOWARD WEDNESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
PERHAPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW- END MVFR CATEGORIES FOR THE
NYC TERMINALS. LOWER CONDITIONS (IFR/LIFR) MAY BE BRIEF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND/OR TSRA.
SHRA AND TSRA ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH +SHRA/+TSRA GRADUALLY
WORKS EAST OVER THE TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT. THE
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THE NYC TERMINALS MAY HAVE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA
OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERN TERMINALS, KBDR, KISP, KGON SEEING A
MORE +SHRA OR +TSRA. SCATTERED SHOWERED AND TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF ANY SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY S/SW UNDER 10 KT BECOMING MORE S/SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. S/SE GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KT POSSIBLE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
WIND DIRECTION AND TIMING OF CHANGES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA ONSETS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS,
POSSIBLY OCCURRING A FEW HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A S/SE FLOW INCREASES TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS. THE FLOW PEAKS TONIGHT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS. OCEAN
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH. WHILE THE
MORNING MAY START OFF MORE MODERATE, A STRENGTHENING S/SE FLOW AND
BUILDING SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BRING A HIGH RISK BY THE AFTERNOON.
BOTH LOCAL GUIDANCE AND RCMOS SHOW THIS.
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MAY
LOWER TO MODERATE BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING,
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING S/SE SWELL AROUND 4 TO 5 FT AT 7S.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>007-009>011.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JT
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