894
FXUS61 KOKX 281911
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT FOR NE
NJ AS WELL AS ORANGE AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
NEW LONDON COUNTY. THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR TODAY FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
(SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION)
3) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
COASTAL LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRIPLE POINT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH SUPPORT FROM A NEARBY UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH. UPWARD FORCING FROM BOTH FEATURES PLUS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
FROM DEVELOPING UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
THIS ALONE POSES A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING, AND
THE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
THAT SUPPORTS BACK-BUILDING OF AND TRAINING OF STORM CELLS. GIVEN
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO INTO FLOOD, HOWEVER A
COUPLE ARE FORECAST TO GET PRETTY CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.
THE PERIOD WHEN FLOODING IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY IS FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. IMPACTS FOR THE EASTERNMOST ZONES ARE
MOST LIKELY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
NEARBY AND THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD, THE FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED REGARDING ITS END TIME OF 8PM WEDNESDAY AS CONFIDENCE IN
SHORTENING ITS DURATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH - ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
PLUS SLOW MOVING CELL POTENTIAL WITH LINGERING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONTENT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH WFO BOX, HAVE DECIDED TO INCLUDE NEW LONDON (AND EASTERN
SUFFOLK) COUNTIES IN THE FLOOD WATCH. CAMS SUGGEST A SLOWING EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF CELLS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF CELL TRAINING TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WPC MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL
3/4) FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK
ELSEWHERE, THEN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN GENERAL, AN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN CT. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE LATEST HREF PMM SHOWING A MAX
5-7 IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO NE NJ.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST,
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PEAK HOURLY RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. THIS IS ALSO
FOCUSED MORE ON NE NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE AREA.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC
METRO. THIS IS SHOWN IN SPC'S LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SHEAR
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT DECENT INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SOME COLLAPSING STORMS. THE
THREAT APPEARS TO HIGHEST FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
TODAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT FOR NE NJ AS WELL AS ORANGE
AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RIP CURRENT RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A FULL MOON OCCURS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
PRECEDING IT. BY THE TIME THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
ARRIVES, WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE OR AT LEAST WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS
OF SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD OFFSET OR AT LEAST NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO TIDAL PILING WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES. THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING A HIGH ENOUGH THREAT OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS A STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED
MINOR FLOODING COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAY
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN NASSAU AND QUEENS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LEVELS
TOUCHING MINOR ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A STATEMENT
ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z
WITH LOCALIZED VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE TOWARD WEDNESDAY
LATE AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
PERHAPS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW- END MVFR CATEGORIES FOR THE
NYC TERMINALS. LOWER CONDITIONS (IFR/LIFR) MAY BE BRIEF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND/OR TSRA.
SHRA AND TSRA ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH +SHRA/+TSRA GRADUALLY
WORKS EAST OVER THE TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT. THE
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING,
POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. THE NYC TERMINALS MAY HAVE
MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED TSRA
OVERNIGHT WITH EASTERN TERMINALS, KBDR, KISP, KGON SEEING A
MORE +SHRA OR +TSRA. SCATTERED SHOWERED AND TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF ANY SHRA/TSRA.
WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY S/SW UNDER 10 KT BECOMING MORE S/SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. S/SE GUSTS AROUND 20-30 KT POSSIBLE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD.
WIND DIRECTION AND TIMING OF CHANGES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA ONSETS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS,
POSSIBLY OCCURRING A FEW HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A S/SE FLOW INCREASES TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS. THE FLOW PEAKS TONIGHT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS. OCEAN
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. SCA GUSTS STILL
ANTICIPATED FOR THE EASTERN WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE SCA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI SOUND AND THE
EASTERN BAYS COULD BE CANCELED AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING.
HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET AS
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH A LINGERING SWELL IN SPITE OF
LOWERING WINDS. MIGHT EVEN NEED TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND THE ADVISORY
HERE INTO THE EVENING IF THE SWELL LINGERS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE REST OF THE DAY REMAINS HIGH WITH A
STRENGTHENING S/SE FLOW AND BUILDING SWELL.
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL DUE TO
LINGERING SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>007-009>011.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ008-012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
176>179.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ079-081.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page