190
FXUS61 KOKX 290044
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
844 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TONIGHT FOR NE
NJ AS WELL AS ORANGE AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND
NEW LONDON COUNTY. THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR TODAY FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS
EVENING.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. (SEE
MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION)
3) POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
COASTAL LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A TRIPLE POINT PASSES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH SUPPORT FROM A NEARBY UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH. UPWARD FORCING FROM BOTH FEATURES PLUS SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
FROM DEVELOPING UPPER DIVERGENCE COMBINE WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
THIS ALONE POSES A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING, AND
THE THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS
THAT SUPPORTS BACK-BUILDING OF AND TRAINING OF STORM CELLS. GIVEN
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL, THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR RIVER FLOODING.
RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO INTO FLOOD, HOWEVER A
COUPLE ARE FORECAST TO GET PRETTY CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS.
THE PERIOD WHEN FLOODING IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL BE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. IMPACTS FOR THE EASTERNMOST ZONES ARE MOST
LIKELY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
NEARBY AND THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD, THE FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS REMAINED
UNCHANGED REGARDING ITS END TIME OF 8PM WEDNESDAY AS CONFIDENCE
IN SHORTENING ITS DURATION IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH - ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL PLUS SLOW MOVING CELL POTENTIAL WITH LINGERING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH WFO BOX, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCLUDE NEW LONDON (AND EASTERN SUFFOLK) COUNTIES IN THE FLOOD
WATCH. CAMS SUGGEST A SLOWING EASTERN PROGRESSION OF CELLS WITH
A BETTER CHANCE OF CELL TRAINING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE WPC MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE, THEN A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY.
IN GENERAL, AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN CT. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
LATEST HREF PMM SHOWING A MAX 5-7 IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
INTO NE NJ.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IS FORECAST,
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PEAK HOURLY RAINFALL RATES UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE STILL ANTICIPATED. THIS IS ALSO
FOCUSED MORE ON NE NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, BUT CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT ANYWHERE IN THE AREA.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC
METRO. THIS IS SHOWN IN SPC'S LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SHEAR
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT DECENT INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SOME COLLAPSING STORMS. THE
THREAT APPEARS TO END LATER THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES SOME. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 10 PM TONIGHT FOR NE NJ AS WELL AS ORANGE AND ROCKLAND
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SEE MARINE SECTION FOR DETAILS ON RIP CURRENT RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A FULL MOON OCCURS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
PRECEDING IT. BY THE TIME THE WEDNESDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
ARRIVES, WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE OR AT LEAST WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS
OF SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD OFFSET OR AT LEAST NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY CONTRIBUTE TO TIDAL PILING WITH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES. THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING A HIGH ENOUGH THREAT OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING FOR AN ADVISORY. PERHAPS A STATEMENT FOR ISOLATED
MINOR FLOODING COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAY
LOCATIONS OF SOUTHERN NASSAU AND QUEENS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN LEVELS
TOUCHING MINOR ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME FOR A STATEMENT
ISSUANCE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SEND A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. THE ONE EXCEPTION THOUGH WILL BE KGON WHERE THE
COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY WILL BE HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND WORK FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, LIKELY COINCIDING WITH A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EASTERN TERMINALS MAY NOT GO DOWN
UNTIL 04-08Z. LOWER CONDITIONS (IFR/LIFR) MAY BE BRIEF AND
ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND/OR TSRA. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT KGON WHICH COULD REMAIN IFR THROUGH
THE DAY.
S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT, WITH A FEW GUST 15-20 KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS, WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A TIME
LATE TONIGHT AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH. MOST
TERMINALS WILL THEN VEER TO A LIGHT SW FLOW TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT AT 10 KT OR LESS
ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, KGON AND KBDR ARE FORECAST TO STAY OR
TAKE ON A E/SE FLOW WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
THOSE LOCATIONS. KGON MAY EVEN SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WITH THE
GRADIENT REMAINING A BIT TIGHTER DURING THE DAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS HAVE BEEN SLOWER THAN FORECAST AND THE 00Z TAFS HAVE
CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THAT PATTERN.
IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.
FREQUENT AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON
LIKELY WITH SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. N-NW WIND G15-20KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A S/SE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. THE FLOW PEAKS
TONIGHT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS. OCEAN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET. SCA GUSTS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE
EASTERN WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE SCA FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI SOUND AND THE EASTERN
BAYS COULD BE CANCELED AT SOME POINT DURING THE MORNING. HAVE
EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET AS
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE WITH A LINGERING SWELL IN SPITE OF
LOWERING WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS...
THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL
DUE TO LINGERING SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
340-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page